Victor Asal

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The question of what effects nuclear weapons have on an actor’s success in coercive diplomacy is in part a function of how nuclear weapons change the perceived costs of conflict. We argue that states will be able to prevail in improving their allotment of a good or in convincing an opponent to back down, and have shorter crises, if their opponents have(More)
How can states signal their alliance commitments? Although scholars have developed sophisticated theoretical models of costly signaling in international relations, we know little about which specific policies leaders can implement to signal their commitments. This article addresses this question with respect to the extended deterrent effects of nuclear(More)
In this paper we present an approach to identifying patterns of behavior preceding political instability events in countries from sampled factor data. This process is based on the concept of state-space back-chaining. A list of sampled, quantized factor data sampled over a range of discrete times define a ”state-space” of a country, and the list of(More)
In this paper we present an approach to identify sets of patterns of behaviors which precede political events of interest (EoIs) such as the the onset of regime change, insurgency, ethnic violence, etc.. We define a pattern to be an identified set of values of sampled, quantized factor data which occurs before at least two instances of an EoI and only(More)
We present an approach to identifying concurrent patterns of behavior in in-sample temporal factor training data that precede Events of Interest (EoIs). We also present how to use discovered patterns to forecast EoIs in out-of-sample test data. The forecasting methodology is based on matching entities’ observed behaviors to patterns discovered in(More)
This article explores those factors which shape a political organization’s choice of tactics in political mobilization with a particular focus on the influence of gender ideology. To understand why political organizations engaging in contentious politics choose to employ violent tactics, nonviolent tactics, or a mixture of both, current scholarship has(More)
We study the influence of domestic political dissent and violence on incumbent dictators and their regimes. We argue that elites with an interest in preserving the regime hold dictators accountable when there is a significant increase in terrorism. To pinpoint the accountability of dictators to elites that are strongly invested in the current regime we make(More)
This paper presents an analysis of the Provisional Irish Republican Army’s (PIRA) brigade level behavior during the Northern Ireland Conflict (1970-1998) and identifies the organizational factors that impact a brigade’s lethality as measured via terrorist attacks. Key independent variables include levels of technical expertise, cadre age, counter-terrorism(More)
Is it possible to identify and even forecast well in advance (6-12 months) the relative stability of a state to enable policy makers to successfully intervene? How does one acquire that understanding? One technique is to model and understand the social factors, which summarize the background conditions, attributes and performance factors of the country over(More)