Victor Asal

Learn More
We study the influence of domestic political dissent and violence on incumbent dictators and their regimes. We argue that elites with an interest in preserving the regime hold dictators accountable when there is a significant increase in terrorism. To pinpoint the accountability of dictators to elites that are strongly invested in the current regime we make(More)
In this paper we present an approach to identifying patterns of behavior preceding political instability events in countries from sampled factor data. This process is based on the concept of state-space back-chaining. A list of sampled, quantized factor data sampled over a range of discrete times define a " state-space " of a country , and the list of(More)
This paper presents an analysis of the Provisional Irish Republican Army's (PIRA) brigade level behavior during the Northern Ireland Conflict (1970-1998) and identifies the organizational factors that impact a brigade's lethality as measured via terrorist attacks. Key independent variables include levels of technical expertise, cadre age, counter-terrorism(More)
In this paper we present an approach to identify sets of patterns of behaviors which precede political events of interest (EoIs) such as the the onset of regime change, insurgency, ethnic violence, etc.. We define a pattern to be an identified set of values of sampled, quantized factor data which occurs before at least two instances of an EoI and only(More)
In this paper, we present a holistic, integrated social science analysis of the leading indicators of WMD terrorism that advances what is known about the social conditions that foster WMD terrorism. This exercise illustrates how a multidisciplinary team of researchers, including political scientists, anthropologists and computer engineers combined(More)
—Is it possible to identify and even forecast well in advance (6-12 months) the relative stability of a state to enable policy makers to successfully intervene? How does one acquire that understanding? One technique is to model and understand the social factors, which summarize the background conditions, attributes and performance factors of the country(More)
  • 1