• Publications
  • Influence
Forecasting the U.S. Unemployment Rate
Abstract This article presents a comparison of forecasting performance for a variety of linear and nonlinear time series models using the U.S. unemployment rate. Our main emphases are on measuringExpand
  • 245
  • 21
  • PDF
Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts
The article presents extensive results from testing for bias and serially correlated errors in a collection of time series of quarterly multiperiod forecasts for six variables including real GNPExpand
  • 277
  • 8
  • PDF
Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting
Acknowledgments Preface I: Theories and Evidence 1: Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview 2: Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective 3: Facts and Factors in the ModernExpand
  • 271
  • 8
Twenty-Two Years of the Nber-Asa Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance
The National Bureau of Economic Research, in co-operation with the American Statistical Association, conducted a regular quarterly survey of professional macroeconomic forecasters for 22 yearsExpand
  • 226
  • 8
Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence
A dimensionally rigid solar distillation apparatus for vaporization and condensation of water, including a slanting transparent sheet supported on generally upright wall members extending from aExpand
  • 362
  • 7
  • PDF
The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys
This paper reports on a comprehensive study of the distributions of summary measures of error for a large collection of quarterly multiperiod predictions of six variables representing inflation, realExpand
  • 105
  • 4
  • PDF
An appraisal of short-term economic forecasts
  • 113
  • 4
Business cycles in the euro area defined with coincident economic indicators and predicted with leading economic indicators
Clusters of cyclical turning points in the coincident indicators help us identify and date euro area recessions and recoveries in the past several decades. In the USA and some other countries,Expand
  • 33
  • 4
  • PDF
Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction
The authors define "consensus" as the degree of agreement among point predictions aimed at the same target by different individuals and " "uncertainty" as the diffuseness of the correspondingExpand
  • 77
  • 3