• Publications
  • Influence
Intelligence Failure and Need for Cognitive Closure: On the Psychology of the Yom Kippur Surprise
This paper uses newly available evidence to shed light on the circumstances and causes of the 6 October 1973 Yom Kippur surprise attack of Egyptian and Syrian forces on Israeli positions at the SuezExpand
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Israel's 1973 intelligence failure
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Forecasting a Hurricane: Israeli and American Estimations of the Khomeini Revolution
Abstract The surprising ‘Arab Spring’ raises the question as to what would enable national intelligence to provide high quality warnings prior to the eruption of popular revolutions. This articleExpand
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Personal Functioning Under Stress
Much work has explored decision making under stress in political leadership. Less work has attempted to link the enormous emotional pressure of crisis with both the heightened sense of politicalExpand
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Change the Analyst and Not the System: A Different Approach to Intelligence Reform
Recent intelligence failures, including first and foremost the mistaken estimate of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) prior to the war, show that a prime source of such failures is theExpand
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Last Chance to Avoid War: Sadat's Peace Initiative of February 1973 and its Failure
Most studies of the attempts to reach a political solution to the Egyptian–Israeli dispute between the wars of 1967 and 1973 focus predominantly on the Jarring mission (1968–71), the Rogers planExpand
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Intelligence Success and Failure: The Human Factor
The study of strategic surprise has long concentrated on important failures that resulted in catastrophes such as Pearl Harbor and the September 11th attacks, and the majority of previously publishedExpand
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