Ullrika Sahlin

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The European REACH legislation accepts the use of non-testing methods, such as QSARs, to inform chemical risk assessment. In this paper, we aim to initiate a discussion on the characterization of predictive uncertainty from QSAR regressions. For the purpose of decision making, we discuss applications from the perspective of applying QSARs to support(More)
The environmental fate and effects of triazoles and benzotriazoles are of concern within the context of chemical regulation. As part of an intelligent testing strategy, experimental tests were performed on endpoints that are relevant for risk assessment. The experimental tests included the assessment of ecotoxicity to an alga, a daphnid and zebrafish(More)
QSAR regression models of the toxicity of triazoles and benzotriazoles ([B]TAZs) to an alga (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata), Daphnia magna and a fish (Onchorhynchus mykiss), were developed by five partners in the FP7-EU Project, CADASTER. The models were developed by different methods - Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Partial Least Squares (PLS), Bayesian(More)
Predictive models used in decision making, such as QSARs in chemical regulation or drug discovery, call for evaluated approaches to quantitatively assess associated uncertainty in predictions. Uncertainty in less reliable predictions may be captured by locally varying predictive errors. In the current study, model-based bootstrapping was combined with(More)
AIM To test how the quality of the outdoor environment of child day care centres (DCCs) influences children's health. METHODS The environment was assessed using the Outdoor Play Environmental Categories (OPEC) tool, time spent outdoors and physical activity as measured by pedometer. 172/253 (68%) of children aged 3.0-5.9 from nine DCCs participated in(More)
It is relevant to consider uncertainty in individual predictions when quantitative structure-activity (or property) relationships (QSARs) are used to support decisions of high societal concern. Successful communication of uncertainty in the integration of QSARs in chemical safety assessment under the EU Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and(More)
Several applications, such as risk assessment within REACH or drug discovery, require reliable methods for the design of experiments and efficient testing strategies. Keeping the number of experiments as low as possible is important from both a financial and an ethical point of view, as exhaustive testing of compounds requires significant financial(More)
Modeling pollination ecosystem services requires a spatially explicit, process-based approach because they depend on both the behavioral responses of pollinators to the amount and spatial arrangement of habitat and on the within- and between-season dynamics of pollinator populations in response to land use. We describe a novel pollinator model predicting(More)
Comparative toxicity potentials (CTPs) quantify the potential ecotoxicological impacts of chemicals per unit of emission. They are the product of a substance's environmental fate, exposure, and hazardous concentration. When empirical data are lacking, substance properties can be predicted. The goal of the present study was to assess the influence of(More)
A prediction of a chemical property or activity is subject to uncertainty. Which type of uncertainties to consider, whether to account for them in a differentiated manner and with which methods, depends on the practical context. In chemical modelling, general guidance of the assessment of uncertainty is hindered by the high variety in underlying modelling(More)