Ulf G. Erlandsson

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This article presents a systematic and extensive empirical study on the presence of Markov switching dynamics in three dollar-based exchange rates. A Monte Carlo approach is adopted to circumvent the statistical inference problem inherent to the test of regime-switching behavior. Two data frequencies, two sample periods, and various specifications are(More)
In this paper we develop an early warning system of currency crises based on the Markov switching methodology. Constructed data on speculative pressure from six Asian countries indicate that currency crises are mainly captured through volatility effects. Based on an extensive survey, we test potential determinants of exiting the tranquil state and find a(More)
In Sweden, approximately 6% of all human transportation is made via buses. The Swedish Board of Accident Investigation and the Swedish Rescue Services Agency have pointed out repeatedly that buses are potential fire and burn hazards, not only when involved in collisions but also in other circumstances. The number of fire incidents is increasing, especially(More)
This paper examines the forecasting properties of endogenous regime switching models for Swedish interest rate volatility. To obtain a valid statistic for determining the exact number of states, a Monte Carlo procedure is employed. The results point out the ability of regime switching models to account for even very large degrees of leptokurtosis. I(More)
This article presents a systematic and extensive empirical study on the presence of Markov switching dynamics in three dollar-based exchange rates. A Monte Carlo approach is adopted to circumvent the statistical inference problem inherent in the test of regime-switching behavior. Two data frequencies, two sample periods, and various specifications are(More)
There are several misconceptions even among hospital personnel regarding damages and injuries caused by lightning. Few health care providers have experience from lightning injuries as they are rare and different (DC) from the more common high-voltage (AC) injuries. Furthermore, fatalities are uncommon. Burns do occur but are usually minor. Most lightning(More)
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