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How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats
By analyzing several thousand solutions to Bayesian problems, the authors found that when information was presented in frequency formats, statistically naive participants derived up to 50% of all inferences by Bayesian algorithms.
Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence.
A comprehensive framework for the theory of probabilistic mental models (PMM theory) is proposed, which explains both the overconfidence effect and the hard-easy effect and predicts conditions under which both effects appear, disappear, or invert.
Fast, frugal, and fit: Simple heuristics for paired comparison
An overview of recent results on lexicographic, linear, and Bayesian models for paired comparison from a cognitive psychology perspective, and identifies the optimal model in each class, where optimality is defined with respect to performance when fitting known data.
When do people use simple heuristics, and how can we tell?
Evidence suggests that heuristics with a cue-wise information search can describe individuals' decision strategies for choice tasks, and results indicate that people indeed use smart and simple decision strategies.
Communicating Statistical Information
Hoffrage et al. demonstrate that these difficulties in understanding and combining statistical information effectively can be considerably reduced by communicating the information in terms of natural frequencies rather than in Terms of probabilities.
The role of representative design in an ecological approach to cognition.
The authors review the development of representative design, its use in judgment and decision-making research, and the effect of design on research findings, and suggest that some of the practical difficulties associated with representative design may be overcome with modern technologies.
Hindsight bias: a by-product of knowledge updating?
It is concluded that hindsight bias can be understood as a by-product of an adaptive process, namely the updating of knowledge after feedback.