Travis C. Porco

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In developed countries the major tuberculosis epidemics declined long before the disease became curable in the 1940s. We present a theoretical framework for assessing the intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis. We demonstrate that it takes one to several hundred years for a tuberculosis epidemic to rise, fall and reach a stable endemic level. Our(More)
OBJECTIVES This study characterized the AIDS epidemic among urban men who have sex with men (MSM). METHODS A probability sample of MSM was obtained in 1997 (n = 2881; 18 years and older) from New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and San Francisco, and HIV status was determined through self-report and biological measures. RESULTS HIV prevalence was 17% (95%(More)
Genital herpes, caused by herpes simplex virus, is the most prevalent sexually transmitted disease worldwide. In many developing countries genital herpes is untreated, and in the United States only 10% of cases are treated. We present a mathematical model that we use as a health policy tool to predict the levels of antiviral drug resistance that would(More)
The World Health Organization has recommended repeat mass drug administration as part of their global initiative to eliminate blinding trachoma by the year 2020. The efficacy of repeat treatment will be tested empirically, but the results will not be available for many years, and recommendations for the necessary frequency of treatment are needed(More)
INTRODUCTION Trachoma programs use mass distributions of oral azithromycin to treat the ocular strains of Chlamydia trachomatis that cause the disease. There is debate whether infection can be eradicated or only controlled. Mass antibiotic administrations clearly reduce the prevalence of chlamydia in endemic communities. However, perfect coverage is(More)
OBJECTIVE Little is known about the degree to which widespread use of antiretroviral therapy in a community reduces uninfected individuals' risk of acquiring HIV. We estimated the degree to which the probability of HIV infection from an infected partner (the infectivity) declined following the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in(More)
PURPOSE To determine the risk factors for intraoperative complications in resident-performed phacoemulsification surgery and the effect of complications on postoperative visual acuity. DESIGN Retrospective case series. PARTICIPANTS A total of 320 consecutive eyes of predominantly male (96.6%) and elderly patients (mean age +/-1 standard deviation =(More)
HIV affects the pathogenesis and the transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We used a discrete event simulation model to predict the potential impact of HIV on increasing the probability and the expected severity of tuberculosis outbreaks. Our predictions reveal that an HIV epidemic can significantly increase the frequency and severity of tuberculosis(More)
CONTEXT The World Health Organization recommends mass antibiotic distributions in its strategy to eliminate blinding trachoma as a public health concern. Some hypothesize that a single distribution is sufficient to control the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma. Others believe infection will inevitably return and periodic treatments or other(More)