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Patterns of diversification and timing of evolution within Neoaves, which includes almost 95% of all bird species, are virtually unknown. On the other hand, molecular data consistently indicate a Cretaceous origin of many neoavian lineages and the fossil record seems to support an Early Tertiary diversification. Here, we present the first well-resolved(More)
Many empirical studies have revealed considerable differences between nonparametric bootstrapping and Bayesian posterior probabilities in terms of the support values for branches, despite claimed predictions about their approximate equivalence. We investigated this problem by simulating data, which were then analyzed by maximum likelihood bootstrapping and(More)
A new method, PATHd8, for estimating ultrametric trees from trees with edge (branch) lengths proportional to the number of substitutions is proposed. The method allows for an arbitrary number of reference nodes for time calibration, each defined either as absolute age, minimum age, or maximum age, and the tree need not be fully resolved. The method is based(More)
Consider a random graph, having a pre-specified degree distribution F but other than that being uniformly distributed, describing the social structure (friendship) in a large community. Suppose one individual in the community is externally infected by an infectious disease and that the disease has its course by assuming that infected individuals infect(More)
This paper is a survey paper on stochastic epidemic models. A simple stochastic epidemic model is defined and exact and asymptotic (relying on a large community) properties are presented. The purpose of modelling is illustrated by studying effects of vaccination and also in terms of inference procedures for important parameters, such as the basic(More)
This paper treats a stochastic model for an SIR (susceptible-->infective-->removed) multitype household epidemic. The community is assumed to be closed, individuals are of different types and each individual belongs to a household. Previously obtained probabilistic and inferential results for the model are used to derive the optimal vaccination scheme. By(More)
Obesity is increasing in an epidemic manner in most countries and constitutes a public health problem by enhancing the risk for cardiovascular disease and metabolic disorders such as type 2 diabetes. Owing to the increase in obesity, life expectancy may start to decrease in developed countries for the first time in recent history. The factors determining(More)
In the favoured core-accretion model of formation of planetary systems, solid planetesimals accumulate to build up planetary cores, which then accrete nebular gas if they are sufficiently massive. Around M-dwarf stars (the most common stars in our Galaxy), this model favours the formation of Earth-mass (M(o)) to Neptune-mass planets with orbital radii of 1(More)
In this paper, a branching process approximation for the spread of a Reed-Frost epidemic on a network with tunable clustering is derived. The approximation gives rise to expressions for the epidemic threshold and the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic. It is investigated how these quantities varies with the clustering in the graph and it turns(More)