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Inadequate data and apartheid policies have meant that, until recently, most demographers have not had the opportunity to investigate the level of, and trend in, the fertility of South African women. The 1996 South Africa Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey provide the first widely available and nationally representative demographic data on(More)
This paper describes marriage and partnership patterns and trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa from 2000-2006. The study is based on longitudinal, population-based data collected by the Africa Centre demographic surveillance system. We consider whether the high rates of non-marriage among Africans in South Africa reported in the 1980s were reversed(More)
Little is known about the dynamics of fertility transition in South Africa, though recent studies have begun to shed light on demographic changes in the country. This study presents trends and patterns of fertility observed in a rural South African population. Various demographic and statistical techniques were used to examine fertility patterns in a(More)
To the Editor: Much noise has recently been made in the popular media suggesting a link between the launch of the Child Support Grant (CSG) and an apparent rise in teenage fertility. This perception persists in spite of a detailed study commissioned by the Department of Social Development1 that found no evidence of ‘perverse incentives’ for childbearing(More)
We investigated birth-interval dynamics in 24 African countries using data from 76 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted since 1986. Controlling for selection bias in the birth-history data using the Brass-Juárez method and regression models produced almost identical results. Birth intervals have lengthened in every country examined. This analysis(More)
Stalled fertility declines have been identified in several regions across the developing world, but the current conceptualization of a stalled fertility decline is poorly theorized and does not lend itself to objective measurement. We propose a more rigorous and statistically testable definition of stalled fertility decline that can be applied to(More)
The relationship between teenage childbearing and school attainment is investigated using nationally representative longitudinal data drawn from South Africa's National Income Dynamics Study. The analysis focuses on the outcomes by 2010 of a panel of 673 young women who were aged 15-18 and childless in 2008. Controlling for other factors, girls who went on(More)
Hill and Choi attempted to test how well the variable-r techniques for estimating adult mortality (Generalised Growth Balance and the Synthetic Extinct Generations methods) perform in the context where data deficiencies violate the assumptions underlying the models. From this work they concluded that each method had strengths and weaknesses and that(More)