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Previous studies demonstrate statistically significant associations between disease and climate variations, highlighting the potential for developing climate-based epidemic early warning systems. However, limitations include failure to allow for non-climatic confounding factors, limited geographical/temporal resolution, or lack of evaluation of predictive(More)
The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping to drive atmospheric circulations in the tropics by absorbing energy and recycling about half of the rainfall that falls on it. This region (Amazonia) is also estimated to contain about one-tenth of the total carbon stored in land ecosystems, and to account for one-tenth of global,(More)
*Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections(More)
[1] Russia’s forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Because of their scale and interannual variability, forest fires can change the direction of the net carbon flux over Eurasia. 2002 and 2003 were the first two consecutive years in the atmospheric record in which the carbon content rose by more than 2 ppm per year. Northern Hemisphere(More)
BACKGROUND With more than a million spectators expected to travel among 12 different cities in Brazil during the football World Cup, June 12-July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic forecast of dengue risk for the 553(More)
*We estimate probability density functions (PDFs) for future rainfall in five regions of South America, by weighting the predictions of the 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Archive Project 3 (CMIP3) General Circulation Models (GCMs). The models are rated according to their relative abilities to reproduce the inter-annual variability in seasonal rainfall.(More)
We develop a graphical interpretation of ternary probabilistic forecasts in which forecasts and observations are regarded as points inside a triangle. Within the triangle, we define a continuous colour palette in which hue and colour saturation are defined with reference to the observed climatology. In contrast to current methods, forecast maps created with(More)
A two-box model for equator-to-pole planetary heat transport is extended to include simple atmospheric dynamics. The surface drag coefficient CD is treated as a free parameter and solutions are calculated analytically in terms of the dimensionless planetary parameters eta (atmospheric thickness), omega (rotation rate) and xi (advective capability).(More)
A perennial question in modern weather forecasting and climate prediction is whether to invest resources in more complex numerical models or in larger ensembles of simulations. If this question is to be addressed quantitatively, then information is needed about how changes in model complexity and ensemble size will affect predictive performance. Information(More)
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