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BACKGROUND The Spectrum and Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) programs are used to estimate key HIV indicators based on HIV surveillance and surveys, programme statistics and epidemic patterns. These indicators include the number of people living with HIV, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, the number of adults and children needing treatment,(More)
The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) was developed to aid in country-level estimation and short-term projection of HIV/AIDS epidemics. This paper describes advances reflected in the most recent update of this tool (EPP 2007), and identifies key issues that remain to be addressed in future versions. The major change to EPP 2007 is the addition(More)
radio localization problem, in which one or more UAVs react cooperatively to localize the location of a radio emitter, will also be introduced. Source localization is cast as a distributed estimation problem. Aircraft mobility is exploited to improve the observability, in terms of the Fisher Information Matrix, of this estimation problem. Aircraft motion is(More)
OBJECTIVE The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) is a tool for country-level estimation and short-term projection of HIV/AIDS epidemics based on fitting observed HIV surveillance data on prevalence. This paper describes the adaptations made in EPP 2009, the latest version of this tool, as new issues have arisen in the global response, in(More)
OBJECTIVE To construct confidence intervals for HIV prevalence in countries with generalised epidemics. METHODS In the Bayesian melding approach, a sample of country-specific epidemic curves describing HIV prevalence over time is derived based on time series of antenatal clinic prevalence data and general information on the parameters that describe the(More)
BACKGROUND Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and Murray et al. have both produced sets of estimates for worldwide HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality. Understanding differences in these estimates can strengthen the interpretation of each. METHODS We describe differences in the two sets of estimates. Where possible, we have drawn on(More)
OBJECTIVE United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS reports regularly on estimated levels and trends in HIV/AIDS epidemics, which are evaluated using an epidemiological model within the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP). The relatively simple four-parameter model of HIV incidence used in EPP through the previous round of estimates has encountered(More)
OBJECTIVE An increasing number of countries have been estimating the distribution of new adult HIV infections by modes of transmission (MOT) to help prioritise prevention efforts. We compare results from studies conducted between 2008 and 2012 and discuss their use for planning and responding to the HIV epidemic. METHODS The UNAIDS recommended MOT model(More)
OBJECTIVE Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden. METHODS Key changes made under the guidance of the UNAIDS(More)