Tiago Alessandro Espínola Ferreira

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In this paper it is introduced a new perturbative approach for time series forecasting. The model uses the error of the series, that is the difference between real value of the series and the output of a predictive method, to improve the series forecasting. The methodology proposed is inspired in the Perturbation Theory, that consists in a set of(More)
This paper presents a new method --- the Time-delay Added Evolutionary Forecasting (TAEF) method --- for time series prediction which performs an evolutionary search of the minimum necessary number of dimensions embedded in the problem for determining the characteristic phase space of the time series. The method proposed is inspired in F. Takens theorem and(More)
Forecasting systems have been widely used for decision making and one of its most promising approaches is based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). In this paper, a hybrid swarm system is presented for the time series forecasting problem, which consists of an intelligent hybrid model composed of an ANN combined with Particle Swarm Optimizer (PSO). The(More)
Combined forecasters have been in the vanguard of stochastic time series modeling. In this way it has been usual to suppose that each single model generates a residual or prediction error like a white noise. However, mostly because of disturbances not captured by each model, it is yet possible that such supposition is violated. The present paper introduces(More)
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been widely used in order to solve the time series forecasting problem. One of its most promising approaches is the combination with other intelligence techniques, as genetic algorithms, evolutionary strategies, etc. The efficiency of these technics, if used correctly, can be very high. Unfortunately, in terms of(More)