Thomas S. Shively

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This paper uses a semi-parametric Poisson-gamma model to estimate the relationships between crash counts and various roadway characteristics, including curvature, traffic levels, speed limit and surface width. A Bayesian nonparametric estimation procedure is employed for the model’s link function, substantially reducing the risk of a mis-specified model. It(More)
This paper provides a method for nonparametrically modeling the relationship between consumer preference for product features, such as reliability or durability, and covariates that describe consumers and how they use the product. This relationship is of interest to firms designing and delivering products to a market because the extent to which consumers(More)
This study introduces a flexible nonlinear semiparametric spline model, new to solvency studies, as a tool for managerial discretion and regulatory oversight. The model has a linear component and a nonlinear component that uses stochastic splines. The study focuses on the functional relationship between regressors and the probability of financial distress(More)
Dedication In the memory of my father Thank you for giving me the opportunities that you never had. For my mother Thank you for your unconditional love and support. For Deserina Thank you for your unwavering support, understanding and countless sacrifices on a journey you did not knowingly sign up for. Acknowledgements I have been remarkably privileged and(More)
For hypotheses of the type H0 : θ = θ0 vs H1 : θ 6= θ0 we demonstrate the equivalence of a Bayesian hypothesis test using a Bayes factor and the corresponding classical test, for a large class of models, which are detailed in the paper. In particular, we show that the role of the prior and critical region for the Bayes factor test is only to specify the(More)
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