Thomas Laepple

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The Milankovitch theory states that global climate variability on orbital timescales from tens to hundreds of thousands of years is dominated by the summer insolation at high northern latitudes. The supporting evidence includes reconstructed air temperatures in Antarctica that are nearly in phase with boreal summer insolation and out of phase with local(More)
Significant discrepancies exist between the detrended variability of late-Holocene marine temperatures inferred from Mg/Ca and Uk37 proxies, with the former showing substantially more centennial-scale variation than the latter. Discrepancies exceed that attributable to differences in location and persist across various calibrations, indicating that they are(More)
The variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at multidecadal and longer timescales is poorly constrained, primarily because instrumental records are short and proxy records are noisy. Through applying a new noise filtering technique to a global network of late Holocene SST proxies, we estimate SST variability between annual and millennial timescales.(More)
The time series of the number of hurricanes per year in the Atlantic basin shows a clear change of level between 1994 and 1995. The time series of the number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US, however, does not show the same obvious change of level. Prima-facie this seems rather surprising, given that the landfalling hurricanes are a subset of the(More)
  • Thomas Laepple, Stephen Jewson, Jonathan Meagher, Adam O, Shay, Jeremy Penzer
  • 2008
We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall goal, in this study we compare the historical performance of three simple statistical methods for making five-year SST(More)
  • Stephen Jewson, Enrica Bellone, Shree Khare, Thomas Laepple, Manuel Lonfat, Kechi Nzerem +3 others
  • 2007
2 ABSTRACT. The insurance industry is interested in five-year predictions of the number of Atlantic hurricanes which will make landfall in the United States. Here we describe a suite of 20 models developed to make such predictions, along with their predictions for both the 2006-2010 and the 2007-2011 periods. The purpose of developing these models is to(More)
  • Thomas Laepple, Stephen Jewson, Jeremy Penzer, Enrica Bellone, Kechi Nzerem
  • 2008
One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion. Should this work better than just predicting landfalling hurricane numbers directly? We perform a basic statistical(More)
We consider two ways that one might convert a prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) into a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers. First, one might regress historical numbers of landfalling hurricanes onto historical SSTs, and use the fitted regression relation to predict future landfalling hurricane numbers given predicted SSTs. We call this the(More)
There is significant correlation between main development region sea surface temperature and the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin. The correlation between the same sea surface temperatures and the number of landfalling hurricanes is much lower, however. Why is this? Do we need to consider complex physical hypotheses, or is there a simple(More)
Broad-scale climate control of vegetation is widely assumed. Vegetation-climate lags are generally thought to have lasted no more than a few centuries. Here our palaeoecological study challenges this concept over glacial-interglacial timescales. Through multivariate analyses of pollen assemblages from Lake El'gygytgyn, Russian Far East and other data we(More)