Thomas Laepple

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The time series of the number of hurricanes per year in the Atlantic basin shows a clear change of level between 1994 and 1995. The time series of the number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US, however, does not show the same obvious change of level. Prima-facie this seems rather surprising, given that the landfalling hurricanes are a subset of the(More)
2 ABSTRACT. The insurance industry is interested in five-year predictions of the number of Atlantic hurricanes which will make landfall in the United States. Here we describe a suite of 20 models developed to make such predictions, along with their predictions for both the 2006-2010 and the 2007-2011 periods. The purpose of developing these models is to(More)
There is significant correlation between main development region sea surface temperature and the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin. The correlation between the same sea surface temperatures and the number of landfalling hurricanes is much lower, however. Why is this? Do we need to consider complex physical hypotheses, or is there a simple(More)
Broad-scale climate control of vegetation is widely assumed. Vegetation-climate lags are generally thought to have lasted no more than a few centuries. Here our palaeoecological study challenges this concept over glacial-interglacial timescales. Through multivariate analyses of pollen assemblages from Lake El'gygytgyn, Russian Far East and other data we(More)
This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in CP if available. Abstract Grape harvest dates have been recorded in many European locations for several centuries , and potentially contain important information about past climate. In this study, we systematically(More)
Running title: Interannual predictions using the IPCC ensemble mean 6 2 We present a simple method to make multi-year surface temperature forecasts using the 7 climate change simulations of the IPCC AR4 project. By calibrating the multi-model 8 ensemble mean with current observations, we are able to make skillful interannual 9 forecasts of mean(More)
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