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The time series of the number of hurricanes per year in the Atlantic basin shows a clear change of level between 1994 and 1995. The time series of the number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US, however, does not show the same obvious change of level. Prima-facie this seems rather surprising, given that the landfalling hurricanes are a subset of the(More)
2 ABSTRACT. The insurance industry is interested in five-year predictions of the number of Atlantic hurricanes which will make landfall in the United States. Here we describe a suite of 20 models developed to make such predictions, along with their predictions for both the 2006-2010 and the 2007-2011 periods. The purpose of developing these models is to(More)
There is significant correlation between main development region sea surface temperature and the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin. The correlation between the same sea surface temperatures and the number of landfalling hurricanes is much lower, however. Why is this? Do we need to consider complex physical hypotheses, or is there a simple(More)
We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall goal, in this study we compare the historical performance of three simple statistical methods for making five-year SST(More)
Broad-scale climate control of vegetation is widely assumed. Vegetation-climate lags are generally thought to have lasted no more than a few centuries. Here our palaeoecological study challenges this concept over glacial-interglacial timescales. Through multivariate analyses of pollen assemblages from Lake El'gygytgyn, Russian Far East and other data we(More)
There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict future hurricane activity. In previous work we have used simple statistical methods to make 5 year predictions of tropical(More)
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