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The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been employed on the largest yet storm prediction model using real data of over 4 billion points to simulate the landfall of Hurricane Sandy. Using an unprecedented 13,680 nodes (437,760 cores) of the Cray XE6 "Blue Waters" at NCSA at the University of(More)
27 28 A multi-­‐decadal ensemble reforecast database is now available that is 29 approximately consistent with the operational 00 UTC cycle of the 2012 NOAA 30 Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). The reforecast data set consists of an 11-­‐ 31 member ensemble run once each day from 0000 UTC initial conditions. Reforecasts 32 are run to +16 days. As with(More)
Twenty-eight predecessor rain events (PREs) that occurred over the United States east of the Rockies during 1995–2008 are examined from a synoptic climatology and case study perspective. PREs are coherent mesoscale regions of heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates $100 mm (24 h) 21 , that can occur approximately 1000 km poleward of recurving tropical cyclones(More)
This study investigates the impact of abnormally moist soil conditions across the southern Great Plains upon the overland reintensification of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Erin (2007). This is tested by analyzing the contributions of three soil moisture–related signals—a seasonal signal, an along-track rainfall signal, and an early postlandfall rainfall(More)
Recent research has identified predecessor rain events (PREs), which are mesoscale regions of heavy rainfall that occur ;1000 km poleward and downshear of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). PREs typically occur 24–36 h prior to the arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC, and frequently result in damaging flooding. A distinguishing feature of(More)
Hurricane Sandy in late October 2012 drove before it a storm surge that rose to 4.28 meters above mean lower low water at The Battery in lower Manhattan, and flooded the Hugh L. Carey automobile tunnel between Brooklyn and The Battery. This study examines the surge event in New York Harbor using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model(More)
This manuscript presents a detailed multiscale analysis—using observations, model analyses, and ensemble forecasts—of the extreme heat wave over Russia and historic floods over Pakistan during late July 2010, with an emphasis on the floods over northern Pakistan. The results show that recirculation of air and dynamically driven subsidence occurring with the(More)
1 ABSTRACT The sensitivity of convective forecasts along the Texas dryline to upstream forecast fields at earlier lead times is evaluated for two consecutive days characterized by no clear synoptic forcing for convection initiation (CI) during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) by applying the ensemble-based sensitivity technique to(More)
Global ensemble forecasts from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) are used to quantify the magnitude of moisture transport into North America ahead of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). Two cases in which a predecessor rain event (PRE) occurred ahead of the recurving TC—Erin (2007)(More)
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