Learn More
T he Iowa Electronic Markets are specially designed futures markets that appear to aggregate information efficiently to predict events such as election outcomes. Yet, in theory, perfect information aggregation is impossible. Further, the markets are populated by a nonrepresentative sample of mistake-prone and biased traders. That is, traders are prone to(More)
Valuations from " prediction markets " reveal expectations about the likelihood of events. " Conditional prediction markets " reveal expectations conditional on other events occurring. For example, in 1996, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) ran markets to predict the chances that different candidates would become the Republican Presidential nominee. Other(More)
Many applications require analyzing textual topics in conjunction with external time series variables such as stock prices. We develop a novel general text mining framework for discovering such causal topics from text. Our framework naturally combines any given probabilistic topic model with time-series causal analysis to discover topics that are both(More)
Topic modeling is popular for text mining tasks. Recently, topic modeling has been combined with time lines when textual data is related to external non-textual time series data such as stock prices. However, no previous work has used the external non-textual time series data in the process of topic modeling. In this paper, we describe a novel text mining(More)
Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic(More)
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Researchers vigorously debate the impact of incentives in preference reversal experiments. Do incentives alter behavior and generate economically consistent choices? Lichtenstein and Slovic (1971) document inconsistencies (reversals) in revealed preference in gamble pairs across paired choice and individual pricing(More)
  • Olena Chyruk, B Ravikumar, Ayca Kaya, Thomas A Rietz, Raymond G Riezman, John L Solow
  • 2016
This dissertation explores the implications of private information on the trade-off between incentives to work and risk-sharing, and on the choice of capital structure and performance of entrepreneurial firms. In Chapter 1 we characterize optimal dynamic contracts in environments with limited commitment and moral hazard. We study the implications of such(More)
T he Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) are real-money, Internet-based futures markets where contract prices reveal information about events such as elections. 1 The IEM traded two contract sets for the 2012 US presidential election: (1) " vote-share " contracts that predicted popular vote-shares taken by the two major party candidates and (2) " winner-takes-all(More)