Thomas A. Rietz

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Valuations from " prediction markets " reveal expectations about the likelihood of events. " Conditional prediction markets " reveal expectations conditional on other events occurring. For example, in 1996, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) ran markets to predict the chances that different candidates would become the Republican Presidential nominee. Other(More)
T he Iowa Electronic Markets are specially designed futures markets that appear to aggregate information efficiently to predict events such as election outcomes. Yet, in theory, perfect information aggregation is impossible. Further, the markets are populated by a nonrepresentative sample of mistake-prone and biased traders. That is, traders are prone to(More)
Many applications require analyzing textual topics in conjunction with external time series variables such as stock prices. We develop a novel general text mining framework for discovering such causal topics from text. Our framework naturally combines any given probabilistic topic model with time-series causal analysis to discover topics that are both(More)
This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may(More)
Topic modeling is popular for text mining tasks. Recently, topic modeling has been combined with time lines when textual data is related to external non-textual time series data such as stock prices. However, no previous work has used the external non-textual time series data in the process of topic modeling. In this paper, we describe a novel text mining(More)
We show that introducing an external capital market with information asymmetry into a product market model reduces opportunistic substitution of substandard goods and encourages producers to concentrate on long-run reputation building. We test this result with a laboratory experiment. We find that, when the problem of product market opportunism is moderate,(More)
In "The Equity Risk Premium: A Pmxle', Mehra and Prescott (1985) developed an Arrow-Debreu asset pricing model. They rejected it because it could not explain high enough equity risk premia. They concluded that only non-Arrow-Debreu models would solve this 'puzzle'. Here, I re-specify their model, capturing the effects of possible, though unlikely, market(More)
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