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I quantitatively measure the nature of the media’s interactions with the stock market using daily content from a popular Wall Street Journal column. I find that high media pessimism predicts downward pressure on market prices followed by a reversion to fundamentals, and unusually high or low pessimism predicts high market trading volume. These results and(More)
We examine whether a simple quantitative measure of language can be used to predict individual firms’ accounting earnings and stock returns. Our three main findings are: 1) the fraction of negative words in firm-specific news stories forecasts low firm earnings; 2) firms’ stock prices briefly underreact to the information embedded in negative words; and 3)(More)
Five university-based research groups competed to recruit forecasters, elicit their predictions, and aggregate those predictions to assign the most accurate probabilities to events in a 2-year geopolitical forecasting tournament. Our group tested and found support for three psychological drivers of accuracy: training, teaming, and tracking. Probability(More)
Using news data on S&P 500 firms, I investigate stock market responses to public news stories that may contain stale information. I employ several empirical proxies for news articles with old information, including variables based on past news events, media coverage, analyst coverage, and liquidity. I find that market reactions to stale news stories(More)
Across a wide range of tasks, research has shown that people make poor probabilistic predictions of future events. Recently, the U.S. Intelligence Community sponsored a series of forecasting tournaments designed to explore the best strategies for generating accurate subjective probability estimates of geopolitical events. In this article, we describe the(More)
I investigate the relationship between liquidity and market efficiency using data from one-day horizon binary outcome securities listed on the TradeSports exchange. I find that liquidity does not reduce deviations of prices from financial and sporting event outcomes. In fact, some exogenous increases in financial market liquidity—e.g., from changes in New(More)
Nanoparticles created by the laser ablation of YBCO are reported. The experimental procedure entailed pulsed laser deposition (PLD) of YBCO at a high background pressure of 5 Torr O2. The sizes of the nanoparticles range from 3 to 5 nm and are typical of the depositions made using laser energies of 50 mJ per pulse. Optical emission spectroscopy was used to(More)
I investigate the relationship between liquidity and market efficiency using data from short-horizon binary outcome securities listed on the TradeSports exchange. I find that liquidity does not reduce—and sometimes increases—deviations of prices from financial and sporting event outcomes. One explanation is that limit order traders are naïve about other(More)