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On the Average Value of Correlated Time Series, with Applications in Dendroclimatology and Hydrometeorology
Abstract In a number of areas of applied climatology, time series are either averaged to enhance a common underlying signal or combined to produce area averages. How well, then, does the average of a…
Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 1: Model description and calibration
Abstract. Current scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the…
Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming
This work interprets the new warming range in probabilistic terms, accounting for uncertainties in emissions, the climate sensitivity, the carbon cycle, ocean mixing, and aerosol forcing, and shows that the probabilities of warming values at both the high and low ends of the TAR range are very low.
Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations
General circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. What is less clear is the extent to which local…
Multi-Gas Forcing Stabilization with Minicam
This paper examines the role of climate forcing agents other than carbon dioxide using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model. Non-CO2 greenhouse gases are particularly important through the middle…
Economic and environmental choices in the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations
THE ultimate goal of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to achieve "stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference…
Global patterns of ENSO‐induced precipitation
Although there have been many analyses of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) induced precipitation anomalies, global patterns from these analyses remain incomplete. Here we combine recent satellite…
Future emissions and concentrations of carbon dioxide: Key ocean / atmosphere / land analyses
Various projections of the relation between future CO2 concentrations and future emissions were undertaken as part of the scientific assessment for Working Group 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on…
The Climate Change Commitment
- T. Wigley
- Environmental ScienceScience
- 18 March 2005
Even if atmospheric composition were fixed today, global-mean temperature and sea level rise would continue due to oceanic thermal inertia, and a substantial long-term commitment may be impossible to avoid.
Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth's climate
Detailed analysis of small output variations in the Sun's total energy output has greatly advanced understanding, and this new understanding indicates that brightening of the Sun is unlikely to have had a significant influence on global warming since the seventeenth century.