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The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate
This paper estimates the permanent and transitory movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate and the relationships between them. The results suggest that permanent movements in U.S. outputExpand
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Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates
In this paper we examine the quality of the initial estimates of headline GDP and 10 major components of both real and nominal U.S. GDP. We ask a number of questions about various characteristics ofExpand
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Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations
This paper develops an unobserved components model for U.S. real GDP that allows for both asymmetric transitory movements and correlation between the permanent and transitory innovations. TheExpand
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A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law
Okun's law is an empirical relationship that measures the correlation between the deviation of the unemployment rate from its natural rate and the deviation of output growth from its potential. ThisExpand
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Tibetan Reform and the Kalmyk Revival of Buddhism
The anti-religious campaigns of the Soviet Union in the 1930s eradicated Kalmyk Buddhism from the public sphere. Following perestroika the Kalmyks retain a sense of being an essentially BuddhistExpand
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Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions
Many studies have undertaken separate analyses of the Fed's forecasts of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and inflation. This article presents a method for jointly evaluating the direction ofExpand
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Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?
Recent research has documented that the Federal Reserve produces systematic errors in forecasting inflation, real GDP growth, and the unemployment rate, even though these forecasts are unbiased. WeExpand
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A nonparametric approach to identifying a subset of forecasters that outperforms the simple average
Empirical studies in the forecast combination literature have shown that it is notoriously difficult to improve upon the simple average despite the availability of optimal combination weights. InExpand
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What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts
Although there have been many evaluations of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook forecasts, we analyze them in a different dimension. We examine the revisions of these forecasts in the context of fixedExpand
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Biodegradation of the Polyurethane Foam Covering of Breast Implants
Although it is generally accepted that polyurethane-covered breast implants have decreased the incidence of clinical capsular contracture, there remain many unanswered questions regarding theExpand
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