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More than wishful thinking: Causes and consequences of voters' electoral expectations about parties and coalitions
Accurate expectations about the outcome of elections play a central role in psychological and economic theories of voting. In the paper, three questions about voters’ expectations are investigated.Expand
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Institutional incentives for strategic voting and party system change in Portugal
Looking more closely at the way people form expectations about the possible outcome of the election in their electoral district I will provide evidence for the first time that strategic voting can beExpand
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Strategic coalition voting: evidence from Austria
Strategic coalition voting assumes that voters cast their vote in a way that maximizes the probability that a preferred coalition will be formed after the election. We identify three decisionExpand
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Do constituency candidates matter in German Federal Elections? The personal vote as an interactive process
What are the electoral consequences of constituency candidates' campaign strategies? This paper focuses on the German case to theoretically and empirically explore this question. Theoretically, itExpand
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Strategic voting in mixed electoral systems
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A Common Left-Right Scale for Voters and Parties in Europe
This article presents a scaling approach to jointly estimate the locations of voters, parties, and European political groups on a common left-right scale. Although most comparative research assumesExpand
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The chancellor model: Forecasting German elections
Our forecast model for German Bundestag elections relies on three predictors: (1) the popularity of the incumbent chancellor (hence the christening of it as the "Chancellor Model"); (2) the long-termExpand
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Issues, Party and Character: The Moderating Role of Ideological Thinking on Candidate Evaluation
We examine ‘heuristic’ and ‘systematic’ candidate-appraisal strategies within a presidential election context. Controlling for political knowledge, we determine whether individual differences in theExpand
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