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Lee and Carter (LC) published a new statistical method for forecasting mortality in 1992. This paper examines its actual and hypothetical forecast errors, and compares them with Social Security forecast errors. Hypothetical historical projections suggest that LC tended to underproject gains, but by less than did Social Security. True e0 was within the ex(More)
Official Medicare projections forecast that the elderly population will be less healthy and more costly over the next century. This prediction stems from the use of age as an indicator of health status: increases in longevity are assumed to increase demand for health care as individuals survive to older and higher-use ages. In this paper I suggest an(More)
The World Health Assembly approved resolution WHA45.5 in 1992. This paper reports the findings of an evaluation of the implementation of this resolution using a survey technique. A total of 150 WHO Member States responded, for a 79% response rate. Findings suggest that the greatest strides worldwide have been made in education. While the data show that(More)
Can J Respir Ther Vol 50 No 2 Summer 2014 52 5. Ramos K, Schafer S, Tracz S. Validation of the Fresno test of competence in evidence based medicine. BMJ 2003;326:319-321. 6. Broomfield D, Humphries GM. Using the Delphi technique to identify the cancer education requirements of general practitioners. Medical Education 2001;35:928-937. rtP02 Pediatric high(More)
Each year, 1 in 5 US children receives medical care as a result of injury. Injuries are the leading cause of medical spending for children ages 5 to 21 years, accounting for more than 20% of hospital admissions and days spent in the hospital. Pediatric injuries become an important issue for managed care organizations because of concern for member safety and(More)
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