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Journals and Conferences
This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country affects other countries’ GDP. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects as a shock is transmitted through output fluctuations and introduces a new specification strategy that reduces the number of unknowns and allows cross-country relationships to vary over… (More)
Chinese cultural patterns of birthing tend to follow a long cycle of a year or more and an annual seasonal cycle. Data on seasonality of births by month of occurrence are modeled with a Box/Jenkins seasonal model with a deterministic seasonality and a stochastic seasonality for Chinese populations in Singapore (1961-86), Malaysia (1966-85), Hong Kong… (More)
We draw attention to an apparent puzzle in the aggregate consumption behavior of Singaporeans. In stark contrast to the rest of the world, the average propensity to consume (APC) has plummeted to just two-fifths of national income by the year 2003, leaving the Singapore economy without a dependable built-in stabilizer. This phenomenon represents a notable… (More)
"Measures of Canadian fertility (total fertility rate and fifteen-year age-specific fertility rate...) and relative cohort size (population aged 30-64 years divided by population aged 15-29 years) show a close co-movement between 1940 and 1976 but record a marked departure since then. The application of cointegration techniques to these series (1921-1988)… (More)
This paper presents a structural VAR model that links gross domestic product of twelve economies, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Japan, USA and the OECD group excluding Japan, South Korea and the US. The model utilizes 132 bilateral export share series to link up the GDP series. One important… (More)
Long series of quarterly GDP ®gures are still not available for many countries. This paper suggests an empirical procedure adapted from Chow and Lin (1971) to derive quarterly estimates from annual GDP ®gures and produces quarterly GDP by sectors for Malaysia from 1973Q1 onwards. A comparison of these estimates with some univariate interpolations using… (More)
"A regression model which combines both the time cost and relative income hypotheses is estimated using Canadian data. The results indicate that the influence of relative income is greater on completed fertility and the effect of time cost is greater on timing of births. Some policy implications are derived."
Using a new methodology, this paper measures the direct and indirect effects of oil prices on GDP growth of 12 economies. Because of the indirect effect, which is transmitted through a trade matrix, even the net oil exporters like Indonesia and Malaysia cannot escape the negative influence of high oil prices. 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
The rise of China as an economic powerhouse has caused concerns in its neighbors. Prevailing in the region is the fear that China is becoming a gigantic ‘‘regional factory’’ that will ‘‘hollow out’’ neighboring economies’ industries. In this paper, we emphasize the economic benefits that a rising Chinese economy can bring into the region. A discussion on… (More)