Sulian Thual

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Atmospheric wind bursts in the tropics play a key role in the dynamics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A simple modeling framework is proposed that summarizes this relationship and captures major features of the observational record while remaining physically consistent and amenable to detailed analysis. Within this simple framework, wind burst(More)
2 Evaluating MJO Event Initiation and Decay in the Skeleton Model using an RMM-like Index 3 4 5 Justin P. Stachnik*1,2, Duane E. Waliser1, 2, Andrew J. Majda3, Samuel N. Stechmann4, and 6 Sulian Thual3 7 8 1. Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, 9 Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA. 10 2. Jet Propulsion(More)
12 The stochastic skeleton model is a simpli ed model for the Madden-Julian oscil13 lation (MJO) and intraseasonal-planetary variability in general involving coupling of 14 planetary-scale dry dynamics, moisture, and a stochastic parametrization for the unre15 solved details of synoptic-scale activity. The model captures the fundamental features 16 of the(More)
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on global climate and seasonal prediction. Recently, a simple modeling framework was developed that automatically captures the ENSO diversity, where statedependent stochastic wind bursts and nonlinear advection of sea surface temperature are coupled to a simple ocean-atmosphere model that is(More)
The present supplementary material is organized as follows. Section 1 details the formulation of the ENSO model used in the present article. Section 2 provides additional examples of delayed, super and moderate El Niño events in the model. Section 3 provides additional details on the ensemble runs including the evolution of ensemble mean and standard(More)
The Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis (1958–2001) is used to investigate the decadal variability in the equatorial thermocline in the Pacific.Whereas the thermocline depth exhibits weak variation at decadal time scales, the temperature change in the vicinity of the thermocline in the western Pacific is significant and has a vertical scale(More)
Recent studies suggest that atmospheric wind bursts in the tropical Pacific have played a major role during the 2014-2016 period marked by a failed El Niño favoring a subsequent super El Niño with dramatic worldwide impacts. Here we show that this new type of major event or so-called delayed super El Niño is realistically and easily captured by simple(More)
(1) Department of Mathematics, and Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, 251 Mercer Street, New York, NY 10012 USA (2) Department of Mathematics, and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin Madison, 480 Lincoln Drive, Madison, WI 53706 USA The supplementary(More)
2 Evaluating MJO Event Initiation and Decay in the Skeleton Model using an RMM-like Index 3 4 5 Justin P. Stachnik, Duane E. Waliser , Andrew J. Majda, Samuel N. Stechmann, and 6 Sulian Thual 7 8 1. Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, 9 Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA. 10 2. Jet Propulsion(More)
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