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7 The relative importance of permanent (trend) versus cyclical shocks 8 to GDP has been a central issue in macroeconomics since the work 9 of Nelson and Plosser (1982). Morley et al. (2003) find large trend 10 shocks. In contrast, Perron and Wada (2009) argue that allowing for 11 a onetime change in the mean growth rate at 1973:1 nearly eliminates 12(More)
In view of the theory and application of information service alliance, this paper elaborates the construction of regional library cultural information service alliance to integrate the resources of Poyang Lake region library and promote the cultural construction and economic development of the Poyang Lake region. Building the Poyang Lake regional library(More)
We conduct both an approximate Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and an exact Bayesian analysis to incorporate break date uncertainty of the mean growth rate into the trend-cycle decomposition of U.S. real GDP. Our results suggest a structural break in mean growth rate of U.S. real GDP in 1970s. Comparing to the models assuming fixed break date, we find higher(More)
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