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This paper provides an analysis of aggregate behavioural outcomes when individual utility exhibits social interaction effects. We study generalized logistic models of individual choice which incorporate terms reflecting the desire of individuals to conform to the behaviour of others in an environment of noncooperative decisionmaking. Laws of large numbers… (More)

SFI Working Papers contain accounts of scientific work of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the Santa Fe Institute. We accept papers intended for publication in peer-reviewed journals or proceedings volumes, but not papers that have already appeared in print. Except for papers by our external faculty, papers must be based on work… (More)

- Steven N Durlauf
- 2001

This paper proposes a method of testing whether a time series is a martingale. A general asymptotic theory is developed for the spectral distribution function of the first differences. Under the null hypothesis, the spectral distribution function is shaped as a straight line. Several tests are developed which determine whether the sample spectral… (More)

- W Brian Arthur, Steven N Durlauf, David A Lane, Gerald Silverberg, Maastricht
- 2001

How does one instigate a scientific revolution, or more modestly, a shift of scientific paradigm? This must have been on the minds of the organizers of the two conferences "The Economy as an Evolving Complex System, I and II" and the research program in economics at the Santa Fe Institute documented in the present volume and its predecessor of ten years… (More)

This paper provides a set of results on the econometric identifiability of binary choice models with social interactions. Our analysis moves beyond parametric identification results that have been obtained in the literature to consider the identifiability of model parameters when the distribution of random payoff terms is unknown. Further, we consider how… (More)

- Steven N Durlauf
- 2003

This paper surveys the modern economics literature on the role of neighborhoods in influencing socioeconomic outcomes. Neighborhood effects have been analyzed in a range of theoretical and applied contexts and have proven to be of interest in understanding questions ranging from the asymptotic properties of various evolutionary games to explaining the… (More)

- Steven N Durlauf, William Brock, Adam Gamoran, Michael Sobel, Chih Ming
- 2002

This paper critically examines the way in which empirical evidence is developed in support of a role for social capital in socioeconomic outcomes. Three leading studies of social capital are reviewed and in each case argued to suffer from various identification problems. A general set of conditions under which social capital effects may be identified in… (More)

- Steven N Durlauf, Paul A Johnson, Jonathan R W Temple
- 2001

- William A Brock, Steven N Durlauf, Kenneth D West
- 2004

This paper explores ways to integrate model uncertainty into policy evaluation. We first describe a general framework for the incorporation of model uncertainty into standard econometric calculations. This framework employs Bayesian model averaging methods that have begun to appear in a range of economic studies. Second, we illustrate these general ideas in… (More)