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How does one instigate a scientific revolution, or more modestly, a shift of scientific paradigm? This must have been on the minds of the organizers of the two conferences "The Economy as an Evolving Complex System, I and II" and the research program in economics at the Santa Fe Institute documented in the present volume and its predecessor of ten years(More)
This paper provides a set of results on the econometric identifiability of binary choice models with social interactions. Our analysis moves beyond parametric identification results that have been obtained in the literature to consider the identifiability of model parameters when the distribution of random payoff terms is unknown. Further, we consider how(More)
This paper surveys the modern economics literature on the role of neighborhoods in influencing socioeconomic outcomes. Neighborhood effects have been analyzed in a range of theoretical and applied contexts and have proven to be of interest in understanding questions ranging from the asymptotic properties of various evolutionary games to explaining the(More)
This paper critically examines the way in which empirical evidence is developed in support of a role for social capital in socioeconomic outcomes. Three leading studies of social capital are reviewed and in each case argued to suffer from various identification problems. A general set of conditions under which social capital effects may be identified in(More)
This paper explores ways to integrate model uncertainty into policy evaluation. We first describe a general framework for the incorporation of model uncertainty into standard econometric calculations. This framework employs Bayesian model averaging methods that have begun to appear in a range of economic studies. Second, we illustrate these general ideas in(More)