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Many commentators argue that uncertainty about fiscal, monetary and regulatory policy slowed recovery from the 2007-2009 recession. To assess this view, we develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) that draws on the frequency of newspaper references to policy uncertainty and other indicators. Our index spikes near tight presidential(More)
This paper develops and applies a simple graphical approach to portfolio selection that accounts for covariance between asset returns and an investor's labor income. Our graphical approach easily handles income shocks that are partly hedgable, multiple risky assets, many periods and life cycle considerations. We apply the approach to occupation-level(More)
This paper is the first to study vacancies, hires, and vacancy yields at the establishment level in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, a large sample of US employers. To interpret the data, we develop a simple model that identifies the flow of new vacancies and the job-filling rate for vacant positions. The fill rate moves counter to aggregate(More)
This paper presents preliminary findings and is being distributed to economists and other interested readers solely to stimulate discussion and elicit comments. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and are not necessarily reflective of views at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions(More)
Slowing climate change requires overcoming inertia in political, technological, and geophysical systems. Of these, only geophysical warming commitment has been quantified. We estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxide-emitting devices. We calculated cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701 in lower-(More)
We characterize the covariance structure between asset returns and labor income shocks for synthetic persons defined in terms of sex, education and birth cohort. The correlation of income shocks with both aggregate and own-industry equity returns tends to rise with educational attainment and, surprisingly, is negative for several sex-education groups. We(More)
This paper explores how real wage rigidities can generate jobless recoveries. Suppose that after a transitory shock, the capital stock lies below trend. If wages are flexible, they decline as the economy grows back to trend. If wages are completely rigid and the labor market is otherwise frictionless, the transitory shock causes a proportional and permanent(More)