Steven Heston

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State-of-the-art stochastic volatility models generate a “volatility smirk” that explains why out-of-the-money index puts have high prices relative to the Black-Scholes benchmark. These models also adequately explain how the volatility smirk moves up and down in response to changes in risk. However, the data indicate that the slope and the level of the(More)
Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for at least 40 trading days. Volume, order imbalance, volatility, and bid-ask(More)
This paper shows how one can obtain a continuous-time preference-free option pricing model with a path-dependent volatility as the limit of a discrete-time GARCH model. In particular, the continuous-time model is the limit of a discrete-time GARCH model of Heston and Nandi (1997) that allows asymmetry between returns and volatility. For the continuous-time(More)
We provide a uni…ed explanation for a number of index option anomalies: the implied volatility puzzle, the overreaction of long-term options to changes in short-term variance, and the fat tails of the risk-neutral return distribution relative to the physical distribution. We explain these anomalies in terms of a pricing kernel that depends on variance.(More)
We develop a GARCH option model with a variance premium by combining the HestonNandi (2000) dynamic with a new pricing kernel. While the pricing kernel is monotonic in the stock return and in variance, its projection onto the stock return is nonmonotonic. A negative variance premium makes it appear U-shaped. We present new semi-parametric evidence to(More)
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