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We analyze the development of 49 local bond markets. Our main finding is that policies and laws matter: Countries with stable inflation rates and strong creditor rights have more developed local bond markets and rely less on foreign-currency-denominated bonds. The results suggest that “original sin” is a misnomer. Emerging economies are not inherently(More)
This paper examines Japan’s experience in the first half of the 1990s to shed some light on several issues that arise as inflation declines toward zero. Is it possible to recognize when an economy is moving into a phase of sustained deflation? How quickly should monetary policy respond to sharp declines in inflation? Are there factors that inhibit the(More)
If price levels are initially different across the euro area, convergence to a common level of prices would imply that inflation will be higher in countries where prices are initially low. Price level convergence thus provides a potential explanation for recent cross-country differences in European inflation, a worrisome development under the ECBs(More)
This paper studies the sources of economic fluctuations and their implications for exchange rate regime choice in key Latin American countries. In general, external shocks play a limited role in driving output fluctuations in these countries; this absence of common business cycles undermines the case for fixed exchange rates. On the other hand, although(More)
This paper has two main goals: to analyze country allocations in international bond portfolios and to describe the development of bond markets around the world. In the primary analysis, we find that country weights in U.S. investors’ foreign bond portfolios are determined by the openness of capital accounts and potential diversification benefits. Positions(More)
We investigate the conditions under which an equilibrium intertemporal model based on portfolio decisions of investors can explain the dynamics of high frequency equity flows. Our model shows that, when there are barriers to international investment and when the expectations of foreign investors are more extrapolative than those of domestic investors(More)
The authors present direct evidence on price level convergence in Europe, using a unique data set. They then investigate how much of the recent differences in national inflation rates in the euro area can be explained by faster rising prices in the low-cost euro countries (i.e. by price level convergence within Europe). Between 1990 and 1999, prices became(More)
This paper examines the extent to which a decline in market power could have contributed to the general decline in inflation rates experienced in developed countries during the 1990s. *Staff economist of the Division of International Finance of the Federal Reserve Board. Email: david.h.bowman@frb.gov. I wish to thank Jon Faust, Steve Kamin, and Jeremy Rudd(More)