Stephen R. Shifley

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Old-growth forests have been noted for containing significant quantities of deadwood. However, there has been no coordinated effort to quantify the deadwood component of old-growth remnants across large regions of temperate deciduous forest. We present results of a regional inventorythatquantifies and examines regional and temporal trends fordeadwood in(More)
We used classification and regression tree analysis to determine the primary variables associated with the occurrence of cavity trees and the hierarchical structure among those variables. We applied that information to develop logistic models predicting cavity tree probability as a function of diameter, species group, and decay class. Inventories of cavity(More)
Two challenges confronting forest landscape models (FLMs) are how to simulate fine, standscale processes while making large-scale (i.e., .10 ha) simulation possible, and how to take advantage of extensive forest inventory data such as U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to initialize and constrain model parameters. We present the LANDIS PRO model(More)
Forest landscape disturbance and succession models have become practical tools for large-scale, long-term analyses of the cumulative effects of forest management on real landscapes. They can provide essential information in a spatial context to address management and policy issues related to forest planning, wildlife habitat quality, timber harvesting, fire(More)
The LANDIS model simulates ecological dynamics, including forest succession, disturbance, seed dispersal and establishment, fire and wind disturbance, and their interactions. We describe the addition to LANDIS of capabilities to simulate forest vegetation management, including harvest. Stands (groups of cells) are prioritized for harvest using one of four(More)
Evaluation of forest landscape model (FLM) predictions is indispensable to establish the credibility of predictions. We present a framework that evaluates shortand long-term FLM predictions at site and landscape scales. Site-scale evaluation is conducted through comparing raster cell-level predictions with inventory plot data whereas landscape-scale(More)
W. J. Wang, H. S. He (heh@missouri.edu) and J. S. Fraser, School of Natural Resources, Univ. of Missouri, 203 ABNR Bldg, Columbia, MO 65211, USA. – F. R. Thompson III and S. R. Shifley, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 202 ABNR Bldg, Columbia, MO 65211, USA. – M. A. Spetich, Arkansas Forestry Sciences Laboratory, USDA Forest Service, Southern(More)
To achieve the overall objective of restoring natural environment and sustainable resource usability, each forest management practice effect needs to be predicted using a simulation model. Previous simulation efforts were typically confined to public land. Comprehensive forest management practices entail incorporating interactions between public and private(More)
At the forest landscape/region level, based on annual Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data from 1999 to 2010, oak decline and mortality trends for major oak species (groups) were examined in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri. Oak decline has elevated cumulative mortality of red oak species to between 11 and 15 percent in terms of relative(More)
Understanding spatial controls on wildfires is important when designing adaptive fire management plans and optimizing fuel treatment locations on a forest landscape. Previous research about this topic focused primarily on spatial controls for fire origin locations alone. Fire spread and behavior were largely overlooked. This paper contrasts the relative(More)