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By studying animal movements, researchers can gain insight into many of the ecological characteristics and processes important for understanding population-level dynamics. We developed a Brownian bridge movement model (BBMM) for estimating the expected movement path of an animal, using discrete location data obtained at relatively short time intervals. The(More)
The clinical failure of antimicrobial drugs that were previously effective in controlling infectious disease is a tragedy of increasing magnitude that gravely affects human health. This resistance by pathogens is often the endpoint of an evolutionary process that began billions of years ago in non-disease-causing microorganisms. This environmental(More)
Imagine a pathogen that is spreading radially as a circular wave through a population of susceptible hosts. In the interior of this circular region, the infection dies out due to a subcritical density of susceptibles. If a mutant pathogen, having some advantage over wild-type pathogens, arises in this region it is likely to die out without leaving a(More)
In spite of the importance of plasmids in bacterial adaptation, we have a poor understanding of their dynamics. It is not known if or how plasmids persist in and spread through (invade) a bacterial population when there is no selection for plasmid-encoded traits. Moreover, the differences in dynamics between spatially structured and mixed populations are(More)
One of the goals of this paper is to show that the infinite-alleles model with overdominant selection " looks like " the neutral infinite-alleles model when the selection intensity and mutation rate get large together. This rather surprising behavior was noticed by Gillespie (1999) in simulations. To make rigorous and refine Gillespie's observations, we(More)
Previously, we showed that adaptive substitutions in one of the three promoters of the bacteriophage ϕX174 improved fitness at high-temperature by decreasing transcript levels three- to four-fold. To understand how such an extreme change in gene expression might lead to an almost two-fold increase in fitness at the adaptive temperature, we focused on stages(More)
Bacterial plasmids are extra-chromosomal genetic elements that code for a wide variety of phenotypes in their bacterial hosts and are maintained in bacterial communities through both vertical and horizontal transfer. Current mathematical models of plasmid-bacteria dynamics, based almost exclusively on mass-action differential equations that describe these(More)
As the number of applications for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) grows, the power of these methods as well as their shortcomings become more apparent. While MCMC yields an almost automatic way to sample a space according to some distribution, its implementations often fall short of this task as they may lead to chains which converge too slowly or get(More)
In healthy humans, many microbial consortia constitute rich ecosystems with dozens to hundreds of species, finely tuned to functions relevant to human health. Medical interventions, lifestyle changes, and the normal rhythms of life sometimes upset the balance in microbial ecosystems, facilitating pathogen invasions or causing other clinically relevant(More)