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Identifying causal networks is important for effective policy and management recommendations on climate, epidemiology, financial regulation, and much else. We introduce a method, based on nonlinear state space reconstruction, that can distinguish causality from correlation. It extends to nonseparable weakly connected dynamic systems (cases not covered by(More)
The potential of fishing mortality to cause rapid evolutionary changes in life history has received relatively little attention. By focusing only on ecological responses, standard fisheries theory and practice implicitly assume either that genetic influences on life history in the wild are negligible or that natural selection and adaptation is a slow(More)
Maternal effects are increasingly recognized as important drivers of population dynamics and determinants of evolutionary trajectories. Recently, there has been a proliferation of studies finding or citing a positive relationship between maternal size/age and offspring size or offspring quality. The relationship between maternal phenotype and offspring size(More)
Ecological regime shifts are rapid, potentially devastating changes in ecosystem state that last for extended periods of time. Previous theoretical work has generated numerous early-warning indicators of regime shifts, some of which have been empirically demonstrated in closed ecological systems. Here we evaluated a suite of indicators using a previously(More)
Forage fish play a pivotal role in marine ecosystems and economies worldwide by sustaining many predators and fisheries directly and indirectly. We estimate global forage fish contributions to marine ecosystems through a synthesis of 72 published Ecopath models from around the world. Three distinct contributions of forage fish were examined: (i) the(More)
The relationship between current abundance and future recruitment to the stock is fundamental to managing fish populations. There is general agreement about the basic attributes such a relationship should possess. However, many different models may be derived from these attributes and the data are often insufficient to distinguish among them. Although(More)
Generalizations describing how top-down and bottom-up processes jointly influence the production of offspring (recruitment) and the number of reproducing adults are lacking. This is a deficiency because (1) it is widely recognized that both top-down and bottom-up processes are common in ecosystems; and (2) the relationship between the number of individuals(More)
Much work has shown that the environment can induce non-genetic changes in phenotype that span multiple generations. Theory predicts that predictable environmental variation selects for both increased within- and across-generation responses. Yet, to the best of our knowledge, there are no empirical tests of this prediction. We explored the relationship(More)
Environmental signals can induce phenotypic changes that span multiple generations. Along with phenotypic responses that occur during development (i.e. 'within-generation' plasticity), such 'transgenerational plasticity' (TGP) has been documented in a diverse array of taxa spanning many environmental perturbations. New theory predicts that temporal(More)