Spencer Carran

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In military planning, it is important to be able to estimate not only the number of fatalities but how often attacks that result in fatalities will take place. We uncovered a simple dynamical pattern that may be used to estimate the escalation rate and timing of fatal attacks. The time difference between fatal attacks by insurgent groups within individual(More)
Society’s drive toward ever faster socio-technical systems, means that there is an urgent need to understand the threat from ‘black swan’ extreme events that might emerge. On 6 May 2010, it took just five minutes for a spontaneous mix of human and machine interactions in the global trading cyberspace to generate an unprecedented system-wide Flash Crash.(More)
The Red Queen’s notion “It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place” has been applied within evolutionary biology, politics and economics. We find that a generalized version in which an adaptive Red Queen (e.g. insurgency) sporadically edges ahead of a Blue King (e.g. military), explains the progress curves for fatal insurgent attacks(More)
We project the long term incidence of Zika virus disease (ZVD) under varying hazards of infection and consider how the age-distribution of disease burden varies between these scenarios. Pathogens with age-structured disease outcomes, such as rubella and Zika virus, require that management decisions consider their impact not only on total disease incidence(More)
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