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Long House Valley in the Black Mesa area of northeastern Arizona (U.S.) was inhabited by the Kayenta Anasazi from about 1800 before Christ to about anno Domini 1300. These people were prehistoric ancestors of the modern Pueblo cultures of the Colorado Plateau. Paleoenvironmental research based on alluvial geomorphology, palynology, and dendroclimatology… (More)
evolutionary, agent-based, and other advanced computational modeling techniques to problems of epidemiology, immunology, and global public health. The working papers represent drafts that have been internally reviewed but are not official publications of the Institution.
In response to concerns about possible bioterrorism, the authors developed an individual-based (or "agent-based") computational model of smallpox epidemic transmission and control. The model explicitly represents an "artificial society" of individual human beings, each implemented as a distinct object, or data structure in a computer program. These agents… (More)
We use a constraint-based language to specify periodic temporal patterns. Our language is intended to be simple to use, while allowing a wide variety of patterns to be expressed. The language solves problems such as (1) how to use calendar-based constraints to define repetition of a periodic event, (2) what temporal relations must exist between consecutive… (More)
We specify and detect periodic patterns in clinical data using a constraint-based pattern specification language. The language has been implemented within both a graphical knowledge acquisition tool and a pattern interpreter, both of which are implemented within a larger temporal abstraction architecture. We provide several examples of how to use the syntax… (More)
We acquire knowledge about periodic patterns in the domains of diabetes and oncology. We describe a constraint-based language that we have developed in which to specify temporal repeating patterns in any domain. The language has been implemented within both a graphical knowledge acquisition tool and a pattern interpreter, both of which are implemented… (More)
We simulate an agent-based model in an attempt to replicate the statistical properties of daily changes in emerging market bond spreads over US treasuries, namely: 1) excess kurtosis; 2) serial correlation, suggesting deviation from market efficiency; and 3) excessive co-movement, suggesting contagion. A simple model of interacting traders produces… (More)