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BACKGROUND In the face of an influenza pandemic, accurate estimates of epidemiologic parameters are required to help guide decision-making. We sought to estimate epidemiologic parameters for pandemic H1N1 influenza using data from initial reports of laboratory-confirmed cases. METHODS We obtained data on laboratory-confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1(More)
We develop and analyze a simple SIV epidemic model including susceptible, infected and perfectly vaccinated classes, with a generalized non-linear incidence rate subject only to a few general conditions. These conditions are satisfied by many models appearing in the literature. The detailed dynamics analysis of the model, using the Poincaré index theory,(More)
Several models have rationalized the use of antiviral drugs as an early control measure for delaying the progression and limiting the size of outbreaks during an influenza pandemic. However, the strategy for use of these drugs is still under debate. We evaluated the impact of prophylaxis of healthcare workers (HCWs) through a mathematical model that(More)
During pandemic influenza, several factors could significantly impact the outcome of vaccination campaigns, including the delay in pandemic vaccine availability, inadequate protective efficacy, and insufficient number of vaccines to cover the entire population. Here, we incorporate these factors into a vaccination model to investigate and compare the(More)
BACKGROUND The relatively mild nature of the 2009 influenza pandemic (nH1N1) highlights the overriding importance of pre-existing immune memory. The absence of cross-reactive antibodies to nH1N1 in most individuals suggests that such attenuation may be attributed to pre-existing cellular immune responses to epitopes shared between nH1N1 virus and previously(More)
Given the danger of an unprecedented spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 in humans, and great challenges to the development of an effective influenza vaccine, antiviral drugs will probably play a pivotal role in combating a novel pandemic strain. A critical limitation to the use of these drugs is the evolution of highly transmissible(More)
BACKGROUND Given the enormity of challenges involved in pandemic preparedness, design and implementation of effective and cost-effective public health policies is a major task that requires an integrated approach through engagement of scientific, administrative, and political communities across disciplines. There is ample evidence to suggest that modeling(More)