Sergey V. Paltsev

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The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model’s first projections were published in 2003, substantial improvements have been made to the model, and improved estimates of the probability distributions of uncertain input parameters(More)
The Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is the part of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) that represents the human systems. EPPA is a recursive-dynamic multi-regional general equilibrium model of the world economy, which is built on the GTAP dataset and additional data for the greenhouse gas and urban gas emissions. It is(More)
We investigate how the U.S. withdrawal and the provisions of the Bonn climate policy conference on sink credits and emissions trading will change the economic and environmental impacts of the Kyoto Protocol in its original form. Based on simulations with a large-scale computable general equilibrium model, we find that U.S. withdrawal and the amendments of(More)
A global biofuels program will lead to intense pressures on land supply and can increase greenhouse gas emissions from land-use changes. Using linked economic and terrestrial biogeochemistry models, we examined direct and indirect effects of possible land-use changes from an expanded global cellulosic bioenergy program on greenhouse gas emissions over the(More)
This study evaluates air pollution-related health impacts on the Chinese economy by using an expanded version of the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model. We estimated that marginal welfare impact to the Chinese economy of ozone and particulate-matter concentrations above background levels increased from 1997 US$22 billion in 1975 to 1997 US$112(More)
Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming(More)
This paper documents a new version of the GTAPinGAMS package which includes two global economic datasets, GTAPinGAMS and GTAP-EG, corresponding illustrative models, and several ancillary programs for dataset management. The GTAPinGAMS is a dataset based on a general GTAPv4 dataset. The GTAP-EG is the energy-economy dataset adjusted for OECD International(More)
The Kyoto Protocol sets the carbon emission targets for 2008-2012 for the major emitting countries. Several former Soviet countries have emissions quotas that appear to be in excess of their anticipated emissions as a result of economic downturn. This excess is sometimes referred to as ”hot air”, and could, in principle, be traded with other countries. The(More)
Emissions mitigation policies affect prices, including prices for fossil fuels and agricultural products. Consumer prices for coal and natural gas are expected to rise when climate policy is implemented, while oil prices may be reduced or remain the same in comparison to a no policy scenario. Impacts on agricultural prices are more controversial as reduced(More)