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Surveying invasive species can be highly resource intensive, yet near-real-time evaluations of invasion progress are important resources for management planning. In the case of the soybean rust invasion of the United States, a linked monitoring, prediction, and communication network saved U.S. soybean growers approximately $200 M/yr. Modeling of future(More)
Plant disease cycles represent pathogen biology as a series of interconnected stages of development including dormancy, reproduction, dispersal, and pathogenesis. The progression through these stages is determined by a continuous sequence of interactions among host, pathogen, and environment. The stages of the disease cycle form the basis of many plant(More)
Ecological history may be an important driver of epidemics and disease emergence. We evaluated the role of history and two related concepts, the evolution of epidemics and the burn-in period required for fitting a model to epidemic observations, for the U.S. soybean rust epidemic (caused by Phakopsora pachyrhizi). This disease allows evaluation of replicate(More)
Using Soybean mosaic virus as a model system, the rate, magnitude and timing of epidemics caused by non-persistently transmitted, aphid-borne viruses are examined under various field conditions. Emphasis is placed on the behavioural responses of vectors to environmental cues, although all three biotic components (host plant, vector and virus) are(More)
Most organisms disperse at some life-history stage, but different research traditions to study dispersal have evolved in botany, zoology, and epidemiology. In this paper, we synthesize concepts, principles, patterns, and processes in dispersal across organisms. We suggest a consistent conceptual framework for dispersal, which utilizes generalized gravity(More)
The pathogen causing soybean rust, Phakopsora pachyrhizi, was first described in Japan in 1902. The disease was important in the Eastern Hemisphere for many decades before the fungus was reported in Hawaii in 1994, which was followed by reports from countries in Africa and South America. In 2004, P. pachyrhizi was confirmed in Louisiana, making it the first(More)
A physically based theory for predicting spore deposition downwind from an area source of inoculum is presented. The modeling framework is based on theories of turbulence dispersion in the atmospheric boundary layer and applies only to spores that escape from plant canopies. A "disease resistance" coefficient is introduced to convert the theoretical spore(More)
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