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BACKGROUND Recent data from antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance and general population surveys suggest substantial declines in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence in Zimbabwe. We assessed the contributions of rising mortality, falling HIV incidence and sexual behaviour change to the decline in HIV prevalence. METHODS Comprehensive review and(More)
BACKGROUND The roll-out of antiretroviral treatment (ART) in developing countries concentrates on finding patients currently in need, but over time many HIV-infected individuals will be identified who will require treatment in the future. We investigated the potential influence of alternative patient management and ART initiation strategies on the impact of(More)
OBJECTIVE Under Millennium Development Goal 4, countries are required to reduce child mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. In countries with generalized epidemics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, standard statistics based on fertility history may misrepresent progress towards this target owing to the correlation between deaths(More)
OBJECTIVES To develop projections of the resources required (person-years of drug supply and healthcare worker time) for universal access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Zimbabwe. METHODS A stochastic mathematical model of disease progression, diagnosis, clinical monitoring and survival in HIV infected individuals. FINDINGS The number of patients(More)
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