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What caused the Black Death?
Evidence is presented that the Black Death was a viral haemorrhagic fever, characterised by a long incubation period of 32 days, which allowed it to be spread widely even with the limited transport of the Middle Ages.
Reappraisal of the historical selective pressures for the CCR5-Δ32 mutation
It is suggested that the original single mutation appeared over 2500 years ago and that persistent epidemics of a haemorrhagic fever that struck at the early classical civilisations served to force up the frequency to about 5×10−5 at the time of the Black Death in 1347.
Return of the Black Death: The World's Greatest Serial Killer
A chronology of key events: the birth of a serial killer, the surprising link between AIDS and the Black Death, and the dangers of emergent diseases.
Biology of Plagues: Evidence from Historical Populations
1. Introduction 2. Epidemiological concepts 3. The biology of bubonic plague 4. The Great Pestilence 5. Case study: the plague at Penrith in 1597-98 6. Pestilence and plague in the 16th century in…
Oscillatory dynamics of smallpox and the impact of vaccination.
The evolution of smallpox epidemics in London, 1647-1893, was studied by time series analysis of deaths from the disease in the Bills of Mortality and the dynamics of the disease can now be described by an SEIR model: severe outbreaks ofSmallpox are followed by decaying epidemics.
The dynamics of measles epidemics.
A linearised model of the dynamics of epidemics shows that T is determined by the product of population (N) and susceptibility (beta) and that the system will settle at its steady state unless the epidemics are driven.
The dynamics of smallpox epidemics in Britain, 1550–1800
Time-series analysis was used to determine the periodicity of smallpox epidemics during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries in two contrasting representative situations: London, a large city where smallpox was endemic, and Penrith, a small rural town.
The dynamics of scarlet fever epidemics in England and Wales in the 19th century
Summary There was a marked rise in scarlet fever mortality in England and Wales in the mid-nineteenth century and spectral analysis of the registration details, 1847–80, shows that the interepidemic…
Reappraisal of the historical selective pressures for the CCR5-Delta32 mutation.
It is suggested that the original single mutation appeared over 2500 years ago and that persistent epidemics of a haemorrhagic fever that struck at the early classical civilisations served to force up the frequency to about 5x10(-5) at the time of the Black Death in 1347.
The plague in Penrith, Cumbria, 1597/8: its causes, biology and consequences.
Using a family reconstitution study the biology of the plague in Penrith, Cumbria in 1597/8 is described in detail, showing that bubonic plague was not the causative agent, and the possibility that anthrax was responsible for the drastic mortality.