• Publications
  • Influence
How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits
One of the fundamental questions addressed by risk-benefit analysis is “How safe is safe enough?” Chauncey Starr has proposed that economic data be used to reveal patterns of acceptable risk-benefitExpand
Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980
From the subjectivist point of view (de Finetti, 1937/1964), a probability is a degree of belief in a proposition. It expresses a purely internal state; there is no “right,” “correct,” or “objective”Expand
Judged frequency of lethal events
A series of 5 experiments with 660 adult Ss studied how people judge the frequency of death from various causes. The judgments exhibited a highly consistent but systematically biased subjective scaleExpand
Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions.
Abstract : Subjects in 3 experiments chose their preferred bet from pairs of bets, and later bid for each bet separately. In each pair, one bet had a higher probability of winning (P bet); the otherExpand
Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?*1
Abstract The validity of a set of subjective probability judgments can be assessed by examining two components of performance, calibration and resolution. The perfectly calibrated judge assignsExpand
Facts and Fears: Understanding Perceived Risk
Subjective judgments, whether by experts or lay people, are a major component in any risk assessment. If such judgments are faulty, efforts at public and environmental protection are likely to beExpand
Reasons for confidence.
People are often overconfident in evaluating the correctness of their knowledge. The present studies investigated the possibility that assessment of confidence is biased by attempts to justify one'sExpand
Knowing with Certainty: The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence.
How often are people wrong when they are certain that they know the answer to a question ? The studies reported here suggest that the answer is "too often." For a variety of general-knowledgeExpand
Characterizing Perceived Risk
In this chapter, we report on three psychometric scaling studies, summarized in Table 1. In each study, participants rated a given set of hazards on a range of risk characteristics and indicated theExpand
Rating the Risks
People respond to the hazards they perceive. If their perceptions are faulty, efforts at public and environmental protection are likely to be misdirected. In order to improve hazard management, aExpand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...