• Publications
  • Influence
The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models
This paper introduces the Bank of England's new forecasting platform and provides examples of how it can be applied to practical forecasting problems. The platform consists of four components:Expand
Measuring Financial Sector Output and its Contribution to UK GDP
In the decade before the financial crisis, the UK financial services sector grew more than twice as fast as the UK economy as a whole. But there are many conceptual difficulties associated withExpand
A Dynamic Model of Financial Balances for the United Kingdom
We construct a new scenario analysis model for the United Kingdom using ONS data from 1987 to the present. The model links decisions about real variables to credit creation in the financial sectorExpand
Proposals to Modify the Measurement of Broad Money in the United Kingdom: A User Consultation
The concept of money traditionally relates to goods or assets that are generally accepted as media of exchange. In practice, there is considerable disagreement about how money should be measured. ToExpand
Measuring Risks to UK Financial Stability
We present a framework for measuring the evolution of risks to financial stability over the financial cycle, which we apply to the United Kingdom. We identify 29 indicators of financial stabilityExpand
The U.S. Pivot to Asia and Renewal of the U.S.–India Strategic Partnership
India's national interest has been propelling the country toward becoming a valuable, cooperative partner with the United States. The growing power of China is pushing India to look for partners,Expand
Multilateral defense cooperation in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region: Tentative steps toward a regional NATO?
ABSTRACT Some U.S. military leaders have asserted that the United States, Japan, Australia, and India and the Republic of Korea are developing multilateral defense cooperation to deter aggression andExpand
This Means War? China's Scramble for Minerals and Resource Nationalism in Southern Africa
The tendency for rising powers to seek control of resource markets is being repeated in Southern Africa, where rising powers led by China are competing for strategic minerals. This could lead toExpand
South Africa's Weapons of Mass Destruction
"South Africa's Weapons of Mass Destruction" offers an in-depth view of the secret development and voluntary disarmament of South Africa's nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons program, ProjectExpand
Fashioning Integrated Security Forces after Conflict
ABSTRACT In Africa, peacemakers have established arrangements to fashion integrated militaries and police forces out of what were warring government and rebel forces. Success has been achievedExpand