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BACKGROUND The origin and estimated death toll of the 1918-1919 epidemic are still debated. Europe, one of the candidate sites for pandemic emergence, has detailed pandemic mortality information. OBJECTIVE To determine the mortality impact of the 1918 pandemic in 14 European countries, accounting for approximately three-quarters of the European population(More)
BACKGROUND Time series data are increasingly available in health care, especially for the purpose of disease surveillance. The analysis of such data has long used periodic regression models to detect outbreaks and estimate epidemic burdens. However, implementation of the method may be difficult due to lack of statistical expertise. No dedicated tool is(More)
BACKGROUND The new influenza virus A/H1N1 (2009), identified in mid-2009, rapidly spread over the world. Estimating the transmissibility of this new virus was a public health priority. METHODS We reviewed all studies presenting estimates of the serial interval or generation time and the reproduction number of the A/H1N1 (2009) virus infection. RESULTS(More)
BACKGROUND Few European countries conduct reactive surveillance of influenza mortality, whereas most monitor morbidity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We developed a simple model based on Poisson seasonal regression to predict excess cases of pneumonia and influenza mortality during influenza epidemics, based on influenza morbidity data and the dominant(More)
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