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Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data
What is the impact of time-varying business uncertainty on economic activity? Using partly confidential business survey data from the U.S. and Germany in structural VARs, we find that positive… Expand
Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks
There seems to be a widespread belief among economists, policy-makers, and members of the media that the "confidence'" of households and businesses is a critical component in the transmission of… Expand
Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence
There have recently been suggestions for monetary policy to engineer higher inflation expectations so as to stimulate current spending. But what is the empirical relationship between inflation… Expand
Aggregate Implications of Lumpy Investment: New Evidence and a DSGE Model
The sensitivity of U.S. aggregate investment to shocks is procyclical: the initial response increases by approximately 50% from the trough to the peak of the business cycle. This feature of the data… Expand
‘Wait-and-See’ business cycles?
Are shocks to firms' profitability risk, propagated by physical capital adjustment costs, a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies this question using a heterogeneous-firm… Expand
Business Cycles and Endogenous Uncertainty
Recessions are times of increased uncertainty and volatility at the micro level. This widely documented empirical pattern has been interpreted as the effect of uncertainty shocks, mediated by various… Expand
Investment Dispersion and the Business Cycle
We document a new business cycle fact: the cross-sectional standard deviation of firm-level investment (investment dispersion) is robustly and significantly procyclical. This makes investment… Expand
Firms' Optimism and Pessimism
This paper explores the question of whether firms have systematic expectation biases. Using microdata from the West German manufacturing subset of the IFO Business Climate Survey, we infer quarterly… Expand
Understanding the Jobless Recoveries After 1991 and 2001
The jobless recoveries in the aftermath of the 1991 and 2001 recessions have puzzled many. Most explanations have focused on structural change. In this paper, I investigate the quantitative… Expand
Uncertainty Business Cycles - Really?
Are fluctuations in firms' profitability risk a major cause of regular business cycles? We study this question within the framework of a heterogeneous-firm dynamic stochastic general equilibrium… Expand