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  • Ruediger Bachmann, Steffen Elstner, Eric Sims, Robert Barsky, Eduardo Engel, Giuseppe Moscarini
  • 2009
What is the impact of time-varying business uncertainty on economic activity? Using (partly confidential) business survey data from the U.S. and Germany in structural VARs, we find that positive innovations to uncertainty lead to prolonged declines in economic activity. Their high-frequency impact is small. There is no evidence of the " wait-and-see(More)
A widespread belief among economists, policy-makers, and members of the media is that the " confidence " of households and firms is a critical component of the transmission of fiscal policy shocks into economic activity. In this paper we take this proposition to the data. We use the commonly accepted restrictions from the literature to identify government(More)
This paper documents a strong negative correlation between various measures of macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth since the onset of the Great Recession. Prior to that event the correlation was weak and in many cases not statistically less than zero, even when restricting the data sample to only include recessions. At the same time, many central(More)
What measure of economic activity, if any, should be targeted in simple interest rate rules? This paper analyzes the welfare consequences of responding to the growth rate of output and the output gap in a DSGE model with both nominal and real frictions. In spite of the fact that it shows up directly in the approximate welfare criterion of the simplest(More)
This paper estimates the response of investment to changes in uncertainty using data on oil drilling in Texas and the expected volatility of the future price of oil. Using a dynamic model of firms' investment problem, I find that: (i) the response of drilling activity to changes in price volatility has a magnitude consistent with the optimal response(More)
  • Boston Library, Iviember Libraries, Ricardo J Caballero, Eduardo M R A Engel, Ruediger Bachmann, Olivier Blan-Chard +5 others
  • 2011
What is the relation between infrequent price adjustment and the dynamic response of the aggregate price level to monetary shocks? The answer to this question ranges from a one-to-one link (Calvo, 1983) to no connection whatsoever (Caplin and Spulber, 1987). The purpose of this paper is to provide a unified framework to understand the mechanisms behind this(More)
This paper studies the effects of market structure changes on newspaper quality, subscription prices and advertising rates. It provides a framework to quantify the welfare effect of ownership consolidations taking into account endogenous quality choice. I develop a structural model that captures key features of the U.S. daily newspaper market and propose an(More)
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