We develop the theory of cyclic Markov chains and apply it to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability problem. At the core of Markov chain modelling is a partition of the state space… (More)

The probability distribution of daily Northern Hemisphere streamfunction fluctuations at 500 hPa in winter is skewed at most locations. Large positive anomalies are more likely north of 50N with… (More)

We introduce a dynamical description based on a probability density φ(σ, x, y, t) of the vorticity σ in two-dimensional viscous flows such that the average vorticity evolves according to the… (More)

It is shown: 1) that in two-dimensional, incompressible, viscous flows the vorticity-area distribution evolves according to an advection-diffusion equation with a negative, time dependent diffusion… (More)

An intrinsic metric tensor, a flat connexion and the corresponding distance-like function are constructed in the configuration space formed by the velocity field and the thermodynamic variables of an… (More)

The weak version of universality in turbulence refers to the independence of the scaling exponents of the nth order structure functions from the statistics of the forcing. The strong version includes… (More)