Roland Rau

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We model monthly disease counts on an age-time grid using the two-dimensional varying-coefficient Poisson regression. Since the marginal profile of counts shows a very strong and varying annual cycle, sine and cosine regressors model periodicity, but their coefficients are allowed to vary smoothly over the age and time plane. The coefficient surfaces are(More)
Life expectancy is rising at a steady pace in industrialized countries. Since the 1950's, increases in human life expectancy are largely attributed to improvements in old-age survival. Generally, this is also true for the United States where life expectancy at birth for women is among the highest in the world. Since the 1980's, however, a deceleration of(More)
We propose generalized linear models for time or age-time tables of seasonal counts, with the goal of better understanding seasonal patterns in the data. The linear predictor contains a smooth component for the trend and the product of a smooth component (the modulation) and a periodic time series of arbitrary shape (the carrier wave). To model rates, a(More)
The aim of this study is to answer the question of whether improvements in the health of the elderly in European countries could compensate for population ageing on the supply side of the labour market. We propose a state-of-health-specific (additive) decomposition of the old-age dependency ratio into an old-age healthy dependency ratio and an old-age(More)
To investigate how economic conditions and crises affect mortality and its predictability in industrialized countries, we review the related literature, and we forecast mortality developments in Spain, Hungary, and Russia—three countries which have recently undergone major transformation processes following the introduction of radical economic and political(More)
Demographic heterogeneity, i. e. differing mortality and fertility among subpopulations, is an important issue in stochastic demographic forecasting. Common approaches typically use the variables age and sex to construct subpopulations, but this might be insufficient and induce projection error. Many studies show significant differences in mortality and(More)
This article uses census records and deaths records to analyze trends in educational inequalities in mortality for Austrian women and men aged 35–64 years between 1981/1982 and 1991/1992. We find an increasing gradient in mortality by education for circulatory diseases and especially ischaemic heart disease. Respiratory diseases and, in addition for women,(More)
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