We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the "classical model" developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years (Cooke, 1991). These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications… (More)
The problem of combining pieces of information issued from several sources can be encountered in various fields of application. This paper aims at presenting the different aspects of information fusion in different domains, such as databases, regulations, preferences , sensor fusion, etc., at a quite general level. We first present different types of… (More)
High dimensional probabilistic models are often formulated as belief nets (BN's), that is, as directed acyclic graphs with nodes representing random variables and arcs representing "influence". BN's are conditionalized on incoming information to support probabilistic inference in expert system applications. For continuous random variables, an adequate… (More)
Bayesian belief nets (BBNs) have become a popular tool for specifying high-dimensional probabilistic models. Commercial tools with an advanced graphical user interface that support BBNs construction and inference are available. Thus, building and working with BBNs is very efficient as long as one is not forced to quantify complex BBNs. A high assessment… (More)
Simple algorithms for probabilistic inversion are proposed, based on iterative sample re-weighting. One of these, iterative proportional fitting (IP F), dates from the 1930's and has been studied extensively with regard to contingency tables. A new algorithm is shown to converge even when IP F is infeasible.
The development of the Netherlands international airport Schiphol has been the subject of fierce political debate for several decades. One of the considerations has been the safety of the population living around the airport, the density of which has been and still is growing. In the debate about the acceptability of the risks associated with the air… (More)
An anecdotal introduction of the role of operational definitions in representing uncertainty is followed by a brief history of operational definitions, with particular attention to the foundations of probability and the fuzzy representations of uncertainty. A short summary of experience at the TU Delft points to relevant open questions. These in turn are… (More)