Roger Lagunoff

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This paper presents a dynamic, stochastic game-theoretic model of financial fragility. The model has two essential features. First, interrelated portfolios and payment commitments forge financial linkages among agents. Second, iid shocks to investment projects’ operations at a single date cause some projects to fail. Investors who experience losses from(More)
We ask whether communication can directly substitute for memory in dynastic repeated games in which short lived individuals care about the utility of their offspring who replace them in an infinitely repeated game. Each individual is unable to observe what happens before his entry in the game. Past information is therefore conveyed from one cohort to the(More)
We study the intergenerational accumulation of knowledge in an infinite-horizon model of communication. Each in a sequence of players receives an informative but imperfect signal of the once-and-for-all realization of an unobserved state. The state affects all players’ preferences over present and future decisions. Each player observes his own signal but(More)
This paper examines characteristics of cooperative behavior in a repeated, n-person, continuous action generalization of a Prisoner’s Dilemma game. When time preferences are heterogeneous and bounded away from one, how “much” cooperation can be achieved by an ongoing group? How does group cooperation vary with the group’s size and structure? For an(More)
We analyze “dynastic” repeated games. A stage game is repeatedly played by successive generations of finitely-lived players with dynastic preferences. Each individual has preferences that replicate those of the infinitely-lived players of a standard discounted infinitely-repeated game. When all players observe the past history of play, the standard repeated(More)
This article formalizes investor rationality and irrationality, exuberance and apprehension, to consider the implications of belief formation for the fragility of an economy’s financial structure. The model presented generates a financial structure with portfolio linkages that make it susceptible to contagious financial crises, despite the absence of(More)
When are political institutions stable? When do they tend toward reform? This paper examines a model of dynamic, endogenous institutional change. I introduce a class of dynamic political games in which the political aggregation rules used at date t+1 are instrumental choices under rules at date t. A political rule is stable if it selects itself. A reform(More)
This paper examines the mechanics of intertemporal information provision in dynastic governments. It has been suggested that “horizontal accountability,” i.e., a system of governance where cross-checking capabilities lie outside the executive branch, can ensure credible information transmission. The results here suggest a cautious approach to that view.(More)