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BACKGROUND The risk of progression to active tuberculosis is greatest in the several years following initial infection. The extent to which latent tuberculosis infection reduces the risk of progressive disease following reexposure and reinfection is not known. Indirect estimates from population models have been highly variable. METHODS We reviewed(More)
An outbreak of 25 cases of Andes virus-associated hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) was recognized in southern Chile from July 1997 through January 1998. In addition to the HPS patients, three persons with mild hantaviral disease and one person with asymptomatic acute infection were identified. Epidemiologic studies suggested person-to-person transmission(More)
BACKGROUND In 2010, the World Health Organization (WHO) released revised guidelines for prevention of mother-to-child human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission (PMTCT). We projected clinical impacts, costs, and cost-effectiveness of WHO-recommended PMTCT strategies in Zimbabwe. METHODS We used Zimbabwean data in a validated computer model to(More)
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Abstract Gasoline and diesel fuel are heavily taxed in many developed and some emerging and developing(More)
The paper develops a general equilibrium model where population sources, such as fertility and mortality rates, are chosen variables. It is shown that the evolution of population over time depends on income and relative prices of mortality and fertility rates. Initially as a country develops, countries should face a period with increasing fertility and(More)
Working on a unbalanced sample of OECD countries spanning the period 1970-2003, this paper contributes to the empirical literature on the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle by making three main innovations: First, it goes beyond the traditional national-level investment-saving equations to estimate, for the first time, regressions at the institutional sector level(More)
Background.  The Pan-American Health Organization has called for reducing (1) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) to ≤0.30 infections/1000 live births (LB), (2) HIV MTCT risk to ≤2.0%, and (3) congenital syphilis (CS) incidence to ≤0.50/1000 LB in the Americas by 2015. Methods.  Using published Brazilian data in a(More)
In the Americas, the only two cholera epidemics of the past century have occurred in the past 25 years. Lessons from the 1991 Peruvian cholera epidemic can help to focus and refine the response to the current Haitian epidemic. After three years of acute epidemic response, we have an opportunity to refocus on the chronic conditions that make societies(More)
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