Robin R L Simons

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We propose stage-structured population models for species whose adult members are subject to culling, with a view to understanding the culling regimes that are likely to result in eradication of the species. A purely time-dependent model is proposed in which culling occurs at particular discrete times, not necessarily equally spaced. Then a(More)
Bat-borne viruses can pose a serious threat to human health, with examples including Nipah virus (NiV) in Bangladesh and Malaysia, and Marburg virus (MARV) in Africa. To date, significant human outbreaks of such viruses have not been reported in the European Union (EU). However, EU countries have strong historical links with many of the countries where NiV(More)
The monitoring and surveillance of animal diseases is becoming increasingly important to policy-makers in Great Britain particularly given recent incursions of avian influenza and the emergence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. To meet this surveillance objective, data from British livestock is collected and analysed retrospectively on an ongoing basis.(More)
In this article we present a model for Salmonella contamination of pig carcasses in the slaughterhouse. This model forms part of a larger QMRA (quantitative microbial risk assessment) on Salmonella in slaughter and breeder pigs, which uses a generic model framework that can be parameterized for European member states, to describe the entire chain from(More)
To address the risk posed to human health by the consumption of VTEC O157 within contaminated pork, lamb, and beef products within Great Britain, a quantitative risk assessment model has been developed. This model aims to simulate the prevalence and amount of VTEC O157 in different meat products at consumption within a single model framework by adapting(More)
A farm-to-consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for Salmonella in pigs in the European Union has been developed for the European Food Safety Authority. The primary aim of the QMRA was to assess the impact of hypothetical reductions of slaughter-pig prevalence and the impact of control measures on the risk of human Salmonella(More)
Bat-borne viruses have been linked to a number of zoonotic diseases; in 2014 there have been human cases of Nipah virus (NiV) in Bangladesh and Ebola virus in West and Central Africa. Here we describe a model designed to provide initial quantitative predictions of the risk of entry of such viruses to European Union (EU) Member States (MSs) through four(More)
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) threatens the effective prevention and treatment of bacterial diseases in both humans and animals. Globally, there has been much research done regarding resistant bacteria in the livestock industry, but few published resources collate this information. This report discusses a risk assessment (RA) framework and subsequent(More)
A model for the transmission of Salmonella between finisher pigs during transport to the abattoir and subsequent lairage has been developed, including novel factors such as environmental contamination and the effect of stress, and is designed to be adaptable for any EU Member State (MS). The model forms part of a generic farm-to-consumption model for(More)
Decision-makers and risk managers are often called upon to prioritise on and recommend suitable measures to prevent the risk of introduction and spread of pathogens. The main objective of this study was to assess the perceptions of experts in Italy, Switzerland and the United Kingdom concerning the importance, effectiveness, feasibility, costs and(More)