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Strategies for hypothesis testing in scientific investigation and everyday reasoning have interested both psychologists and philosophers. A number of these scholars stress the importance of disconfir. marion in reasoning and suggest that people are instead prone to a general deleterious "confirmation bias" In particula~ it is suggested that people tend to(More)
Abstracf We investigate the relation between judgments of probability and preferences between bets. A series of experiments provides support for the competence hypothesis that people prefer betting on their own judgment over an equiprobable chance event when they consider themselves knowledgeable, but not otherwise. They even pay a signilicant premium to(More)
Much research has highlighted incoherent implications of judgmental heuristics, yet other findings have demonstrated high correspondence between predictions and outcomes. At the same time, judgment has been well modeled in the form of as if linear models. Accepting the probabilistic nature of the environment, the authors use statistical tools to model how(More)
Much of decision aiding uses a divide-and-conquer strategy to help people with risky decisions. Assessing the utility of outcomes and one's degree of belief in their likelihood are assumed to be separable tasks, the results of which can then be combined to determine the preferred alternative. Evidence from different areas of psychology now provides a(More)
Causal explanation takes place in and takes the form of conversation. Explanations are selected by questions and are thus governed by general rules of discourse. A conversational model of causal explanation is introduced that explicates social aspects of the explanation process by postulating that good explanations must be relevant to the focus of a why(More)
The mathematical representation of E. Brunswik's (1952) lens model has been used extensively to study human judgment and provides a unique opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis of studies that covers roughly 5 decades. Specifically, the authors analyzed statistics of the "lens model equation" (L. R. Tucker, 1964) associated with 249 different task(More)
This paper provides empirical evidence that risk and ambiguity affect underwriters' decisions on pricing insurance. A field study of primary-insurance underwriters in a random sample of commercial property-and-casualty insurance companies reveals that premiums are significantly higher for risks when there is either ambiguity regarding the probability of a(More)
The quality of group judgment is examined in situations in which groups have to express an opinion in quantitative form. To provide a yardstick for evaluating the quality of group performance (which is itself defined as the absolute value of the discrepancy between the judgment and the true value), four base-line models are considered. These models provide(More)