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In recent years laboratory experiments have shed significant light on the behavior of economic agents in a variety of microeconomic and decision-theoretic contexts such as auction markets, portfolio choice, and preference elicitation. Despite the success of experimental techniques in the micro domain, there has been relatively little work linking the… (More)
Much research has highlighted incoherent implications of judgmental heuristics, yet other findings have demonstrated high correspondence between predictions and outcomes. At the same time, judgment has been well modeled in the form of as if linear models. Accepting the probabilistic nature of the environment, the authors use statistical tools to model how… (More)
(probably none of whom agrees with everything in the chapter).
The mathematical representation of E. Brunswik's (1952) lens model has been used extensively to study human judgment and provides a unique opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis of studies that covers roughly 5 decades. Specifically, the authors analyzed statistics of the "lens model equation" (L. R. Tucker, 1964) associated with 249 different task… (More)
This paper provides empirical evidence that risk and ambiguity affect underwriters' decisions on pricing insurance. A field study of primary-insurance underwriters in a random sample of commercial property-and-casualty insurance companies reveals that premiums are significantly higher for risks when there is either ambiguity regarding the probability of a… (More)
Business Administration (INSEAD). We are grateful to Professor Emmanuel Lazega for translating the survey network questionnaire into French. Joanne Dufour was invaluable as project director; contacting survey respondents and assembling background data from the company records. For helpful comments, we are grateful to Accumulating empirical evidence on… (More)
In a series of five experiments, exactingness, or the extent to which deviations from optimal decisions are punished, is studied within the context of learning a repetitive decision-making task together with the effects of incentives. Results include the findings that (a) performance is an inverted-U shaped function of exactingness, (b) performance is… (More)
The quality of group judgment is examined in situations in which groups have to express an opinion in quantitative form. To provide a yardstick for evaluating the quality of group performance (which is itself defined as the absolute value of the discrepancy between the judgment and the true value), four base-line models are considered. These models provide… (More)
the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología. We gratefully acknowledge the constructive comments of Manel Baucells, Konstantinos Katsikopoulos, Daniel Goldstein, two anonymous reviewers, and the editors.