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Much research has highlighted incoherent implications of judgmental heuristics, yet other findings have demonstrated high correspondence between predictions and outcomes. At the same time, judgment has been well modeled in the form of as if linear models. Accepting the probabilistic nature of the environment, the authors use statistical tools to model how(More)
This paper provides empirical evidence that risk and ambiguity affect underwriters' decisions on pricing insurance. A field study of primary-insurance underwriters in a random sample of commercial property-and-casualty insurance companies reveals that premiums are significantly higher for risks when there is either ambiguity regarding the probability of a(More)
Business Administration (INSEAD). We are grateful to Professor Emmanuel Lazega for translating the survey network questionnaire into French. Joanne Dufour was invaluable as project director; contacting survey respondents and assembling background data from the company records. For helpful comments, we are grateful to Accumulating empirical evidence on(More)
In a series of five experiments, exactingness, or the extent to which deviations from optimal decisions are punished, is studied within the context of learning a repetitive decision-making task together with the effects of incentives. Results include the findings that (a) performance is an inverted-U shaped function of exactingness, (b) performance is(More)
The mathematical representation of E. Brunswik's (1952) lens model has been used extensively to study human judgment and provides a unique opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis of studies that covers roughly 5 decades. Specifically, the authors analyzed statistics of the "lens model equation" (L. R. Tucker, 1964) associated with 249 different task(More)
The quality of group judgment is examined in situations in which groups have to express an opinion in quantitative form. To provide a yardstick for evaluating the quality of group performance (which is itself defined as the absolute value of the discrepancy between the judgment and the true value), four base-line models are considered. These models provide(More)
People often prefer to choose from small as opposed to large sets of alternatives. We propose that satisfaction from choice is an inverted U-shaped function of the number of alternatives. This proposition is derived theoretically by considering the benefits and costs of different numbers of alternatives and is supported by three experimental studies.(More)