Robin M. Hogarth

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In recent years laboratory experiments have shed significant light on the behavior of economic agents in a variety of microeconomic and decision-theoretic contexts such as auction markets, portfolio choice, and preference elicitation. Despite the success of experimental techniques in the micro domain, there has been relatively little work linking the(More)
Why is private investment so low in Gulf compared to Western countries? We investigate cross-regional differences in trust and reference points for trustwor­ thiness as possible factors. Experiments controlling for cross-re€ ,>1onal differences in institutions and beliefs about trustworthiness reveal that Gulf citizens pay much more than Westerners to avoid(More)
People often prefer to choose from small as opposed to large sets of alternatives. We propose that satisfaction from choice is an inverted U-shaped function of the number of alternatives. This proposition is derived theoretically by considering the benefits and costs of different numbers of alternatives and is supported by three experimental studies.(More)
In a series of five experiments, exactingness, or the extent to which deviations from optimal decisions are punished, is studied within the context of learning a repetitive decision-making task together with the effects of incentives. Results include the findings that (a) performance is an inverted-U shaped function of exactingness, (b) performance is(More)
Pennsylvania. Fred Collopy is Assistant Professor of Management Information and Decision Systems, the Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University. Robert H. Colgrove assisted in the problem formulation and data collection for the laboratory experiment. Richard H. Franke was especially helpful in guiding our thinking. Jonlee Andrews,(More)
Much research has highlighted incoherent implications of judgmental heuristics, yet other findings have demonstrated high correspondence between predictions and outcomes. At the same time, judgment has been well modeled in the form of as if linear models. Accepting the probabilistic nature of the environment, the authors use statistical tools to model how(More)
The mathematical representation of E. Brunswik's (1952) lens model has been used extensively to study human judgment and provides a unique opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis of studies that covers roughly 5 decades. Specifically, the authors analyzed statistics of the "lens model equation" (L. R. Tucker, 1964) associated with 249 different task(More)
The quality of group judgment is examined in situations in which groups have to express an opinion in quantitative form. To provide a yardstick for evaluating the quality of group performance (which is itself defined as the absolute value of the discrepancy between the judgment and the true value), four baseline models are considered. These models provide a(More)
We study the effectiveness of simple heuristics in multiattribute decision making. We consider the case of an additive separable utility function with nonnegative, nonincreasing attribute weights. In this case, cumulative dominance ensures that the so-called cumulative dominance compliant heuristics will choose a best alternative. For the case of binary(More)